Today / Iceland - 1. Deild / IR Reykjavik vs Afturelding

IR Reykjavik vs Afturelding Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Regular Season - 12 ·Friday, July 3, 2026, 19:15

IR Reykjavik

PPG 1.60 · HOME

UPCOMING

Afturelding

PPG 1.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 5.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 81.7% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2% — a real, if thin, edge.

+8.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.4%0-11.5%0-22.6%0-33.0%0-4+6.1%1 1-00.9%1-13.0%1-25.2%1-35.9%1-4+12.1%2 2-00.9%2-13.0%2-25.2%2-35.9%2-4+12.1%3 3-00.6%3-12.0%3-23.4%3-33.9%3-4+8.1%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-11.6%4+-22.7%4+-33.1%4+-4+6.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 22.2% 28.2% 3.55 -12.7%

Draw 17.7% 24.4% 4.10 -16.5%

Away win 60.1% 57.1% 1.75 +5.2%

Over 2.5 81.7% 75.2% 1.33 +8.7%

Over 3.5 55.3% 55.6% 1.80 -0.5%

BTTS 69.1% 76.9% 1.30 -10.2%

Home O1.5 54.7% 50.0% 2.00 +9.4%

Away O1.5 82.4% 70.4% 1.42 +17.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 32%

ROI 1.1%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 69%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)3.4 BTTS prob69.1%

A 60% / xG 2.0-3.4 / O2.5 82% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–3 5.9%

#2 2–3 5.9%

#3 1–2 5.2%

#4 2–2 5.2%

#5 1–4 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

IR Reykjavik2.0

Afturelding3.4

COMBINED 5.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 81.7% · O3.5 PROB 55.3%

Form & verdict PPG

IR REYKJAVIK · PPG 1.60

AFTURELDING · PPG 1.80

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.60), Away GOOD (1.80)

Win probability 1X2

IR Reykjavik (H) 22.2%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -12.7%

Draw 17.7%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -16.5%

Afturelding (A) 60.1%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV +5.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

IR Reykjavik face Afturelding in Iceland - 1. Deild on Friday, July 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives IR Reykjavik a 22% chance, the draw 18% and Afturelding 60%, so Afturelding are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for IR Reykjavik and 3.4 for Afturelding (5.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-3. There is a 82% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, IR Reykjavik are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 1.80 for Afturelding. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +36.8%.

IR Reykjavik vs Afturelding Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Match Preview & Prediction

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