Today / Iceland - 1. Deild / Njardvik vs Throttur R.

Njardvik vs Throttur R. Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Regular Season - 12 ·Friday, July 3, 2026, 19:15

Njardvik

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Throttur R.

PPG 2.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.0% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.2%0-110.6%0-27.8%0-33.8%0-4+2.0%1 1-08.3%1-112.3%1-29.1%1-34.5%1-4+2.3%2 2-04.8%2-17.1%2-25.3%2-32.6%2-4+1.3%3 3-01.9%3-12.8%3-22.0%3-31.0%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.0%4+-20.8%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.0% 41.7% 2.40 -25.6%

Draw 25.7% 27.0% 3.70 -2.9%

Away win 43.3% 41.7% 2.40 +3.9%

Over 2.5 52.8% 69.0% 1.45 -23.4%

Over 3.5 30.6% 46.5% 2.15 -34.2%

BTTS 55.0% 71.4% 1.40 -23.0%

Home O1.5 35.2% 54.6% 1.83 -35.6%

Away O1.5 49.8% 54.6% 1.83 -8.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 32%

ROI 1.1%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 29%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob55.0%

A 43% / xG 1.2-1.5 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 1–2 9.1%

#3 0–0 7.2%

#4 0–1 10.6%

#5 0–2 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Njardvik1.2

Throttur R.1.5

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.8% · O3.5 PROB 30.6%

Form & verdict PPG

NJARDVIK · PPG 2.00

THROTTUR R. · PPG 2.25

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.00), Away EXCELLENT (2.25)

Win probability 1X2

Njardvik (H) 31.0%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -25.6%

Draw 25.7%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -2.9%

Throttur R. (A) 43.3%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV +3.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Njardvik face Throttur R. in Iceland - 1. Deild on Friday, July 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Njardvik a 31% chance, the draw 26% and Throttur R. 43%, so Throttur R. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Njardvik and 1.5 for Throttur R. (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Njardvik are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 2.25 for Throttur R.. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +3.9%.

Njardvik vs Throttur R. Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Match Preview & Prediction

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