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Leiknir R. vs Volsungur Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Regular Season - 12 ·Saturday, July 4, 2026, 16:00

Leiknir R.

PPG 2.00 · HOME

3 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Volsungur

PPG 0.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.9% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.2%0-14.7%0-22.1%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-010.8%1-19.6%1-24.3%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.1%2-19.9%2-24.4%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-07.6%3-16.8%3-23.0%3-30.9%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-06.3%4+-15.6%4+-22.5%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.5% 60.6% 1.65 -5.1%

Draw 22.4% 24.4% 4.10 -4.9%

Away win 20.1% 24.4% 4.10 -10.5%

Over 2.5 60.9% 70.4% 1.42 -13.5%

Over 3.5 37.1% 47.6% 2.10 -22.1%

BTTS 55.6% 70.4% 1.42 -21.1%

Home O1.5 61.2% 69.0% 1.45 -11.3%

Away O1.5 23.8% 41.7% 2.40 -25.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 31 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 32%

ROI -4.2%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-3

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob55.6%

H 57% / xG 2.1-0.9 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.1%

#2 1–1 9.6%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 10.8%

#5 3–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Leiknir R.2.1

Volsungur0.9

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.9% · O3.5 PROB 37.1%

Form & verdict PPG

LEIKNIR R. · PPG 2.00

VOLSUNGUR · PPG 0.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=57.5%

Win probability 1X2

Leiknir R. (H) 57.5%

ODDS 1.65 · IMPLIED 60.6% EV -5.1%

Draw 22.4%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -4.9%

Volsungur (A) 20.1%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -10.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Leiknir R. face Volsungur in Iceland - 1. Deild on Saturday, July 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Leiknir R. a 57% chance, the draw 22% and Volsungur 20%, so Leiknir R. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Leiknir R. and 0.9 for Volsungur (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Leiknir R. are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.40 for Volsungur. This match finished 3-3.

Leiknir R. vs Volsungur Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Match Preview & Prediction

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