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Grotta vs HK Kopavogur Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Regular Season - 12 ·Friday, July 3, 2026, 19:15

Grotta

PPG 0.75 · HOME

UPCOMING

HK Kopavogur

PPG 0.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 72.6% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.9%0-12.1%0-22.6%0-32.2%0-4+2.4%1 1-02.0%1-14.9%1-26.0%1-35.0%1-4+5.5%2 2-02.2%2-15.6%2-26.9%2-35.7%2-4+6.3%3 3-01.7%3-14.2%3-25.2%3-34.3%3-4+4.8%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-14.1%4+-25.1%4+-34.2%4+-4+4.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.4% 30.3% 3.30 +23.4%

Draw 21.1% 24.4% 4.10 -8.1%

Away win 41.4% 55.6% 1.80 -25.5%

Over 2.5 72.6% 73.5% 1.36 -1.3%

Over 3.5 53.2% 51.8% 1.93 +2.7%

BTTS 69.1% 73.5% 1.36 -6.0%

Home O1.5 61.2% 48.8% 2.05 +25.5%

Away O1.5 69.2% 67.6% 1.48 +2.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 32%

ROI 1.1%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 58%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)2.5 BTTS prob69.1%

A 41% / xG 2.3-2.5 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–2 6.9%

#2 1–2 6.0%

#3 2–3 5.7%

#4 1–1 4.9%

#5 2–1 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Grotta2.3

HK Kopavogur2.5

COMBINED 4.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.6% · O3.5 PROB 53.2%

Form & verdict PPG

GROTTA · PPG 0.75

HK KOPAVOGUR · PPG 0.60

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.75), Away POOR (0.60)

Win probability 1X2

Grotta (H) 37.4%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +23.4%

Draw 21.1%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -8.1%

HK Kopavogur (A) 41.4%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -25.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Grotta face HK Kopavogur in Iceland - 1. Deild on Friday, July 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Grotta a 37% chance, the draw 21% and HK Kopavogur 41%, so HK Kopavogur are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Grotta and 2.5 for HK Kopavogur (4.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Grotta are averaging 0.75 points per game versus 0.60 for HK Kopavogur. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +48.0%.

Grotta vs HK Kopavogur Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Match Preview & Prediction

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