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Njardvik vs HK Kopavogur Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Matchday 15 ·Friday, July 24, 2026, 19:15

Njardvik

PPG 2.29 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWLW

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

HK Kopavogur

PPG 0.86 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 69% chance

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 66.0% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.1%0-14.3%0-23.0%0-31.4%0-4+0.7%1 1-06.4%1-18.9%1-26.3%1-32.9%1-4+1.4%2 2-06.6%2-19.3%2-26.5%2-33.1%2-4+1.5%3 3-04.6%3-16.5%3-24.5%3-32.1%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-03.9%4+-15.5%4+-23.8%4+-31.8%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.6% 48.8% 2.05 +3.7%

Draw 22.2% 26.3% 3.80 -9.4%

Away win 27.2% 34.5% 2.90 -12.7%

Over 2.5 66.0% 70.4% 1.42 -6.3%

Over 3.5 42.5% 47.6% 2.10 -10.8%

BTTS 64.1% 72.5% 1.38 -11.5%

Home O1.5 61.8% 60.6% 1.65 +2.0%

Away O1.5 41.9% 51.3% 1.95 -18.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 77 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 34%

ROI 2.1%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 58%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob64.1%

H 51% / xG 2.1-1.4 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.9%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 2–0 6.6%

#4 2–2 6.5%

#5 3–1 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Njardvik2.1

HK Kopavogur1.4

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.0% · O3.5 PROB 42.5%

Form & verdict PPG

NJARDVIK · PPG 2.29

HK KOPAVOGUR · PPG 0.86

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

69%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.68 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Njardvik (H) 50.6%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV +3.7%

Draw 22.2%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -9.4%

HK Kopavogur (A) 27.2%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -12.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Njardvik face HK Kopavogur in Iceland - 1. Deild on Friday, July 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Njardvik a 51% chance, the draw 22% and HK Kopavogur 27%, so Njardvik are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Njardvik and 1.4 for HK Kopavogur (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Njardvik are averaging 2.29 points per game versus 0.86 for HK Kopavogur. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +2.0%. This match finished 3-2.

Njardvik vs HK Kopavogur Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Match Preview & Prediction

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