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Njardvik vs HK Kopavogur Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Regular Season - 15 ·Friday, July 24, 2026, 19:15

Njardvik

PPG 2.29 · HOME

UPCOMING

HK Kopavogur

PPG 0.86 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.0% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.3%0-13.4%0-22.5%0-31.3%0-4+0.7%1 1-05.2%1-17.8%1-25.8%1-32.9%1-4+1.5%2 2-05.9%2-18.9%2-26.7%2-33.3%2-4+1.7%3 3-04.5%3-16.8%3-25.1%3-32.5%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-04.4%4+-16.7%4+-25.0%4+-32.5%4+-4+1.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.3% 48.8% 2.05 +7.2%

Draw 21.7% 26.3% 3.80 -10.5%

Away win 26.1% 34.5% 2.90 -14.6%

Over 2.5 67.0% 71.4% 1.40 -6.2%

Over 3.5 44.5% 50.0% 2.00 -11.0%

BTTS 64.5% 74.1% 1.35 -12.9%

Home O1.5 61.8% 62.5% 1.60 -1.1%

Away O1.5 49.0% 52.4% 1.91 -6.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 31 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 32%

ROI -14.7%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 65%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob64.5%

H 52% / xG 2.3-1.5 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.8%

#2 2–1 8.9%

#3 3–1 6.8%

#4 2–2 6.7%

#5 2–0 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Njardvik2.3

HK Kopavogur1.5

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.0% · O3.5 PROB 44.5%

Form & verdict PPG

NJARDVIK · PPG 2.29

HK KOPAVOGUR · PPG 0.86

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.79 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Njardvik (H) 52.3%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV +7.2%

Draw 21.7%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -10.5%

HK Kopavogur (A) 26.1%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -14.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Njardvik face HK Kopavogur in Iceland - 1. Deild on Friday, July 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Njardvik a 52% chance, the draw 22% and HK Kopavogur 26%, so Njardvik are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Njardvik and 1.5 for HK Kopavogur (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 65% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Njardvik are averaging 2.29 points per game versus 0.86 for HK Kopavogur. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +7.9%.

Njardvik vs HK Kopavogur Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Match Preview & Prediction

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