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Aeggir vs Fylkir Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Regular Season - 12 ·Friday, July 3, 2026, 19:15

Aeggir

PPG 0.60 · HOME

UPCOMING

Fylkir

PPG 1.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.5%0-17.6%0-28.3%0-36.1%0-4+5.6%1 1-04.1%1-18.9%1-29.7%1-37.1%1-4+6.5%2 2-02.4%2-15.2%2-25.7%2-34.2%2-4+3.8%3 3-00.9%3-12.0%3-22.2%3-31.6%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.8%4+-20.8%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 21.5% 13.2% 7.60 +38.0%

Draw 21.5% 19.0% 5.25 +7.7%

Away win 57.0% 78.1% 1.28 -27.0%

Over 2.5 63.9% 73.5% 1.36 -13.1%

Over 3.5 42.1% 51.8% 1.93 -18.8%

BTTS 62.1% 62.5% 1.60 -0.6%

Home O1.5 35.2% 29.0% 3.45 +21.4%

Away O1.5 58.2% 80.0% 1.25 -27.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 32%

ROI 1.1%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 57%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob62.1%

A 57% / xG 1.2-2.2 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.9%

#2 1–2 9.7%

#3 0–2 8.3%

#4 1–3 7.1%

#5 0–1 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Aeggir1.2

Fylkir2.2

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 42.1%

Form & verdict PPG

AEGGIR · PPG 0.60

FYLKIR · PPG 1.80

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.80) vs Home POOR (0.60)

Win probability 1X2

Aeggir (H) 21.5%

ODDS 7.60 · IMPLIED 13.2% EV +38.0%

Draw 21.5%

ODDS 5.25 · IMPLIED 19.0% EV +7.7%

Fylkir (A) 57.0%

ODDS 1.28 · IMPLIED 78.1% EV -27.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Aeggir face Fylkir in Iceland - 1. Deild on Friday, July 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aeggir a 22% chance, the draw 22% and Fylkir 57%, so Fylkir are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Aeggir and 2.2 for Fylkir (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aeggir are averaging 0.60 points per game versus 1.80 for Fylkir. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +38.0%.

Aeggir vs Fylkir Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Match Preview & Prediction

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