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Grindavik vs Vestri Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Regular Season - 12 ·Saturday, July 4, 2026, 14:00

Grindavik

PPG 1.00 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Vestri

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.8% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.9%0-111.2%0-27.0%0-32.9%0-4+1.2%1 1-010.4%1-113.0%1-28.1%1-33.4%1-4+1.4%2 2-06.1%2-17.6%2-24.7%2-32.0%2-4+0.8%3 3-02.4%3-12.9%3-21.8%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.1%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.5% 41.7% 2.40 -12.4%

Draw 27.7% 27.4% 3.65 +0.7%

Away win 35.8% 41.7% 2.40 -14.1%

Over 2.5 49.7% 65.4% 1.53 -24.0%

Over 3.5 28.8% 42.6% 2.35 -19.4%

BTTS 52.8% 69.4% 1.44 -24.0%

Home O1.5 35.2% 51.8% 1.93 -32.1%

Away O1.5 39.8% 51.8% 1.93 -23.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 31 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 32%

ROI -4.2%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 17%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob52.8%

A 36% / xG 1.2-1.2 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 0–0✓ 8.9%

#3 0–1 11.2%

#4 1–0 10.4%

#5 1–2 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Grindavik1.2

Vestri1.2

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.7% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

GRINDAVIK · PPG 1.00

VESTRI · PPG 1.17

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away AVERAGE (1.17)

Win probability 1X2

Grindavik (H) 36.5%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -12.4%

Draw 27.7%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV +0.7%

Vestri (A) 35.8%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -14.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Grindavik face Vestri in Iceland - 1. Deild on Saturday, July 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Grindavik a 37% chance, the draw 28% and Vestri 36%, so Grindavik are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Grindavik and 1.2 for Vestri (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Grindavik are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.17 for Vestri. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +0.7%. This match finished 0-0.

Grindavik vs Vestri Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Match Preview & Prediction

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