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Völsungur vs Grindavik Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Regular Season - 15 ·Friday, July 24, 2026, 18:00

Völsungur

PPG 0.71 · HOME

UPCOMING

Grindavik

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 62.7% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.5%0-18.5%0-26.6%0-33.4%0-4+1.9%1 1-07.4%1-111.5%1-28.9%1-34.6%1-4+2.5%2 2-05.0%2-17.8%2-26.0%2-33.1%2-4+1.7%3 3-02.2%3-13.5%3-22.7%3-31.4%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.6%4+-21.2%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.1% 33.3% 3.00 +8.3%

Draw 23.9% 26.3% 3.80 -5.5%

Away win 40.0% 50.0% 2.00 -20.0%

Over 2.5 62.7% 70.4% 1.42 -11.0%

Over 3.5 40.0% 47.6% 2.10 -16.0%

BTTS 62.5% 72.5% 1.38 -13.8%

Home O1.5 38.5% 50.0% 2.00 -23.0%

Away O1.5 49.0% 61.7% 1.62 -20.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 31 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 32%

ROI -14.7%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 48%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob62.5%

A 40% / xG 1.3-1.6 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 1–2 8.9%

#3 2–1 7.8%

#4 0–0 5.5%

#5 0–1 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Völsungur1.3

Grindavik1.6

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.7% · O3.5 PROB 40.0%

Form & verdict PPG

VÖLSUNGUR · PPG 0.71

GRINDAVIK · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.21 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Völsungur (H) 36.1%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +8.3%

Draw 23.9%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -5.5%

Grindavik (A) 40.0%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -20.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Völsungur face Grindavik in Iceland - 1. Deild on Friday, July 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Völsungur a 36% chance, the draw 24% and Grindavik 40%, so Grindavik are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Völsungur and 1.6 for Grindavik (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Völsungur are averaging 0.71 points per game versus 1.00 for Grindavik. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +10.9%.

Völsungur vs Grindavik Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Match Preview & Prediction

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