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Völsungur vs Grindavik Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Matchday 15 ·Friday, July 24, 2026, 18:00

Völsungur

PPG 0.71 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLWW

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Grindavik

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDLWD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 68% chance

Combined xG of 2.7 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.7% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-19.6%0-27.1%0-33.4%0-4+1.7%1 1-08.3%1-112.1%1-28.9%1-34.3%1-4+2.2%2 2-05.2%2-17.6%2-25.6%2-32.7%2-4+1.4%3 3-02.2%3-13.2%3-22.3%3-31.1%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.3%4+-21.0%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.2% 33.3% 3.00 +8.6%

Draw 24.3% 26.3% 3.80 -4.6%

Away win 39.4% 50.0% 2.00 -21.2%

Over 2.5 60.7% 70.4% 1.42 -13.8%

Over 3.5 37.5% 47.6% 2.10 -21.3%

BTTS 62.2% 72.5% 1.38 -14.2%

Home O1.5 38.0% 50.0% 2.00 -24.0%

Away O1.5 49.0% 61.7% 1.62 -20.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 77 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 34%

ROI 2.1%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob62.2%

A 39% / xG 1.3-1.5 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 1–2 8.9%

#3 0–0 6.6%

#4 0–1 9.6%

#5 2–1 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Völsungur1.3

Grindavik1.5

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.7% · O3.5 PROB 37.5%

Form & verdict PPG

VÖLSUNGUR · PPG 0.71

GRINDAVIK · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

68%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.21 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Völsungur (H) 36.2%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +8.6%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -4.6%

Grindavik (A) 39.4%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -21.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Völsungur face Grindavik in Iceland - 1. Deild on Friday, July 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Völsungur a 36% chance, the draw 24% and Grindavik 39%, so Grindavik are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Völsungur and 1.5 for Grindavik (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Völsungur are averaging 0.71 points per game versus 1.00 for Grindavik. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +11.7%. This match finished 2-0.

Völsungur vs Grindavik Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Match Preview & Prediction

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