Today / Iceland - 1. Deild / Leiknir R. vs Throttur Reykjavik

Leiknir R. vs Throttur Reykjavik Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Matchday 15 ·Thursday, July 23, 2026, 19:15

Leiknir R.

PPG 1.57 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWLW

1 – 5

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Throttur Reykjavik

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLWLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 64% chance

Combined xG of 2.6 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 53.9% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.4%0-110.3%0-27.2%0-33.4%0-4+1.6%1 1-08.9%1-112.5%1-28.7%1-34.1%1-4+1.9%2 2-05.4%2-17.5%2-25.3%2-32.5%2-4+1.2%3 3-02.2%3-13.0%3-22.1%3-31.0%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.2%4+-20.8%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.4% 21.1% 4.75 +77.6%

Draw 26.3% 23.8% 4.20 +6.3%

Away win 36.3% 65.4% 1.53 -44.5%

Over 2.5 53.9% 69.0% 1.45 -21.8%

Over 3.5 32.8% 46.5% 2.15 -29.5%

BTTS 55.4% 66.7% 1.50 -16.9%

Home O1.5 36.8% 36.4% 2.75 +1.2%

Away O1.5 41.9% 70.4% 1.42 -40.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 71 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 31%

ROI -3.3%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-5

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob55.4%

H 37% / xG 1.2-1.4 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 0–0 7.4%

#3 1–2 8.7%

#4 0–1 10.3%

#5 2–1 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Leiknir R.1.2

Throttur Reykjavik1.4

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 32.8%

Form & verdict PPG

LEIKNIR R. · PPG 1.57

THROTTUR REYKJAVIK · PPG 1.67

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

64%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.19 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Leiknir R. (H) 37.4%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +77.6%

Draw 26.3%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +6.3%

Throttur Reykjavik (A) 36.3%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -44.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Leiknir R. face Throttur Reykjavik in Iceland - 1. Deild on Thursday, July 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Leiknir R. a 37% chance, the draw 26% and Throttur Reykjavik 36%, so Leiknir R. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Leiknir R. and 1.4 for Throttur Reykjavik (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Leiknir R. are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 1.67 for Throttur Reykjavik. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +45.9%. This match finished 1-5.

Leiknir R. vs Throttur Reykjavik Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Match Preview & Prediction

More Iceland - 1. Deild Predictions