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Leiknir R. vs Throttur Reykjavik Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Regular Season - 15 ·Thursday, July 23, 2026, 19:15

Leiknir R.

PPG 1.57 · HOME

UPCOMING

Throttur Reykjavik

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.8% vs bookmaker-implied 74.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.4%0-18.6%0-26.8%0-33.6%0-4+2.0%1 1-07.3%1-111.4%1-29.0%1-34.7%1-4+2.7%2 2-04.8%2-17.6%2-26.0%2-33.2%2-4+1.8%3 3-02.2%3-13.4%3-22.7%3-31.4%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.5%4+-21.2%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.2% 23.0% 4.35 +57.5%

Draw 24.3% 23.8% 4.20 +1.2%

Away win 39.4% 64.5% 1.55 -38.9%

Over 2.5 60.8% 74.6% 1.34 -18.5%

Over 3.5 37.5% 53.8% 1.86 -30.3%

BTTS 60.1% — — —

Home O1.5 39.2% 43.1% 2.32 -9.1%

Away O1.5 48.9% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 31 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 32%

ROI -14.7%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 44%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob60.1%

A 39% / xG 1.3-1.6 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 1–2 9.0%

#3 2–1 7.6%

#4 0–0 5.4%

#5 0–1 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Leiknir R.1.3

Throttur Reykjavik1.6

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.8% · O3.5 PROB 37.5%

Form & verdict PPG

LEIKNIR R. · PPG 1.57

THROTTUR REYKJAVIK · PPG 1.67

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.57), Away GOOD (1.67)

Win probability 1X2

Leiknir R. (H) 36.2%

ODDS 4.35 · IMPLIED 23.0% EV +57.5%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +1.2%

Throttur Reykjavik (A) 39.4%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV -38.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Leiknir R. face Throttur Reykjavik in Iceland - 1. Deild on Thursday, July 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Leiknir R. a 36% chance, the draw 24% and Throttur Reykjavik 39%, so Throttur Reykjavik are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Leiknir R. and 1.6 for Throttur Reykjavik (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Leiknir R. are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 1.67 for Throttur Reykjavik. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +57.5%.

Leiknir R. vs Throttur Reykjavik Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Match Preview & Prediction

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