Today / Iceland - 1. Deild / Afturelding vs Aeggir

Afturelding vs Aeggir Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Regular Season - 9 ·Monday, June 29, 2026, 19:15

Afturelding

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Aeggir

PPG 0.83 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 66.3% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.4%0-11.7%0-21.1%0-30.4%0-4+0.2%1 1-04.2%1-15.3%1-23.3%1-31.4%1-4+0.6%2 2-06.4%2-18.0%2-25.0%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-06.5%3-18.0%3-25.0%3-32.1%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-010.3%4+-112.9%4+-28.0%4+-33.3%4+-4+1.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.2% 80.0% 1.25 -21.0%

Draw 17.7% 18.5% 5.40 -2.6%

Away win 19.1% 11.4% 8.80 +40.8%

Over 2.5 66.3% 76.9% 1.30 -13.8%

Over 3.5 48.3% 55.6% 1.80 -13.1%

BTTS 62.6% 64.5% 1.55 -3.0%

Home O1.5 77.8% 83.3% 1.20 -6.6%

Away O1.5 38.9% 29.9% 3.35 +30.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -0.3%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 65%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.0 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob62.6%

H 63% / xG 3.0-1.2 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 8.0%

#2 2–1 8.0%

#3 3–0 6.5%

#4 2–0 6.4%

#5 4–1 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Afturelding3.0

Aeggir1.2

COMBINED 4.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.3% · O3.5 PROB 48.3%

Form & verdict PPG

AFTURELDING · PPG 2.00

AEGGIR · PPG 0.83

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=63.2%

Win probability 1X2

Afturelding (H) 63.2%

ODDS 1.25 · IMPLIED 80.0% EV -21.0%

Draw 17.7%

ODDS 5.40 · IMPLIED 18.5% EV -2.6%

Aeggir (A) 19.1%

ODDS 8.80 · IMPLIED 11.4% EV +40.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Afturelding face Aeggir in Iceland - 1. Deild on Monday, June 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Afturelding a 63% chance, the draw 18% and Aeggir 19%, so Afturelding are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.0 for Afturelding and 1.2 for Aeggir (4.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Afturelding are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.83 for Aeggir. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +40.8%.

Afturelding vs Aeggir Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Match Preview & Prediction

More Iceland - 1. Deild Predictions