Today / Iceland - 1. Deild / Afturelding vs Aeggir

Afturelding vs Aeggir Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Matchday 9 ·Monday, June 29, 2026, 19:15

Afturelding

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

DDWWW

8 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Aeggir

PPG 0.83 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLLL 

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 77.8% vs bookmaker-implied 83.3%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.4%0-11.7%0-21.1%0-30.4%0-4+0.2%1 1-04.2%1-15.3%1-23.3%1-31.4%1-4+0.6%2 2-06.4%2-18.0%2-25.0%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-06.5%3-18.0%3-25.0%3-32.1%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-010.3%4+-112.9%4+-28.0%4+-33.3%4+-4+1.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.2% 80.0% 1.25 -21.0%

Draw 17.7% 18.5% 5.40 -2.6%

Away win 19.1% 11.4% 8.80 +40.8%

Over 2.5 66.3% 76.9% 1.30 -13.8%

Over 3.5 48.3% 55.6% 1.80 -13.1%

BTTS 62.6% 64.5% 1.55 -3.0%

Home O1.5 77.8% 83.3% 1.20 -6.6%

Away O1.5 38.9% 29.9% 3.35 +30.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 71 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 31%

ROI -3.3%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 65%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 8-1

xG (home)3.0 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob62.6%

H 63% / xG 3.0-1.2 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 8.0%

#2 2–1 8.0%

#3 3–0 6.5%

#4 2–0 6.4%

#5 4–1 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Afturelding3.0

Aeggir1.2

COMBINED 4.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.3% · O3.5 PROB 48.3%

Form & verdict PPG

AFTURELDING · PPG 2.00

AEGGIR · PPG 0.83

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=63.2%

Win probability 1X2

Afturelding (H) 63.2%

ODDS 1.25 · IMPLIED 80.0% EV -21.0%

Draw 17.7%

ODDS 5.40 · IMPLIED 18.5% EV -2.6%

Aeggir (A) 19.1%

ODDS 8.80 · IMPLIED 11.4% EV +40.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Afturelding face Aeggir in Iceland - 1. Deild on Monday, June 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Afturelding a 63% chance, the draw 18% and Aeggir 19%, so Afturelding are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.0 for Afturelding and 1.2 for Aeggir (4.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Afturelding are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.83 for Aeggir. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +40.8%. This match finished 8-1.

Afturelding vs Aeggir Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Match Preview & Prediction

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