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KuPS vs VPS Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga

Regular Season - 17 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 14:00

KuPS

PPG 2.25 · HOME

UPCOMING

VPS

PPG 1.12 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.3% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.6%0-18.4%0-23.3%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-015.4%1-112.2%1-24.8%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.2%2-18.9%2-23.5%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-05.4%3-14.3%3-21.7%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-12.2%4+-20.9%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.0% 53.2% 1.88 -6.0%

Draw 26.2% 28.2% 3.55 -4.2%

Away win 23.8% 27.4% 3.65 -7.9%

Over 2.5 50.0% 58.8% 1.70 -15.0%

Over 3.5 28.7% 36.4% 2.75 -12.6%

BTTS 52.3% 63.7% 1.57 -17.9%

Home O1.5 46.3% 55.6% 1.80 -16.7%

Away O1.5 20.1% 36.4% 2.75 -26.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 42%

BTTS 38%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -4.8%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.3%

H 50% / xG 1.5-0.8 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 1–0 15.4%

#3 0–0 10.6%

#4 2–0 11.2%

#5 2–1 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

KuPS1.5

VPS0.8

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

KUPS · PPG 2.25

VPS · PPG 1.12

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.66 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

KuPS (H) 50.0%

ODDS 1.88 · IMPLIED 53.2% EV -6.0%

Draw 26.2%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -4.2%

VPS (A) 23.8%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -7.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

KuPS face VPS in Finland - Veikkausliiga on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives KuPS a 50% chance, the draw 26% and VPS 24%, so KuPS are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for KuPS and 0.8 for VPS (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, KuPS are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 1.12 for VPS.

KuPS vs VPS Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

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