Today / Finland - Veikkausliiga / Mariehamn vs AC Oulu

Mariehamn vs AC Oulu Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga

Regular Season - 17 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 13:30

Mariehamn

PPG 0.38 · HOME

UPCOMING

AC Oulu

PPG 1.11 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.4 puts the goal expectation near the line. Model probability 52.3% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.3%0-114.4%0-211.2%0-35.8%0-4+3.2%1 1-07.7%1-111.9%1-29.2%1-34.8%1-4+2.6%2 2-03.2%2-14.9%2-23.8%2-32.0%2-4+1.1%3 3-00.9%3-11.4%3-21.0%3-30.5%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.3%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.3% 18.9% 5.30 +33.2%

Draw 25.0% 26.0% 3.85 -2.3%

Away win 45.6% 64.1% 1.56 -28.9%

Over 2.5 52.3% 58.8% 1.70 -11.1%

Over 3.5 32.8% 36.4% 2.75 -9.8%

BTTS 52.3% 58.8% 1.70 -11.1%

Home O1.5 33.3% 28.2% 3.55 +18.2%

Away O1.5 49.0% 61.7% 1.62 -20.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 42%

BTTS 38%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -4.8%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 23%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob52.3%

A 46% / xG 0.8-1.6 / U2.5 52% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 0–1 14.4%

#3 0–2 11.2%

#4 0–0 9.3%

#5 1–2 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mariehamn0.8

AC Oulu1.6

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.3% · O3.5 PROB 32.8%

Form & verdict PPG

MARIEHAMN · PPG 0.38

AC OULU · PPG 1.11

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.72 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Mariehamn (H) 29.3%

ODDS 5.30 · IMPLIED 18.9% EV +33.2%

Draw 25.0%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -2.3%

AC Oulu (A) 45.6%

ODDS 1.56 · IMPLIED 64.1% EV -28.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Mariehamn face AC Oulu in Finland - Veikkausliiga on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mariehamn a 29% chance, the draw 25% and AC Oulu 46%, so AC Oulu are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Mariehamn and 1.6 for AC Oulu (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mariehamn are averaging 0.38 points per game versus 1.11 for AC Oulu. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +18.2%.

Mariehamn vs AC Oulu Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

More Finland - Veikkausliiga Predictions