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FF Jaro vs SJK Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga

Matchday 17 ·Friday, July 24, 2026, 16:00

FF Jaro

PPG 1.25 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLLL 

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

SJK

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDLLD

// Model verdict

BTTS 63% chance

Model probability 55.4% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-17.3%0-24.5%0-31.8%0-4+0.7%1 1-09.4%1-111.6%1-27.2%1-32.9%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.5%2-19.3%2-25.7%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-04.0%3-14.9%3-23.0%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-12.8%4+-21.7%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.7% 32.3% 3.10 +44.8%

Draw 25.5% 28.2% 3.55 -5.7%

Away win 27.8% 48.1% 2.08 -25.3%

Over 2.5 53.9% 61.7% 1.62 -12.7%

Over 3.5 32.8% 40.0% 2.50 -18.0%

BTTS 55.4% 66.7% 1.50 -16.9%

Home O1.5 51.7% 43.5% 2.30 +18.9%

Away O1.5 36.9% 54.6% 1.83 -32.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 84 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 43%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 13.4%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 36%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.4%

H 47% / xG 1.6-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 2–1✓ 9.3%

#3 1–0 9.4%

#4 0–0 5.9%

#5 2–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FF Jaro1.6

SJK1.2

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 32.8%

Form & verdict PPG

FF JARO · PPG 1.25

SJK · PPG 0.75

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

63%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.36 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

FF Jaro (H) 46.7%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +44.8%

Draw 25.5%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -5.7%

SJK (A) 27.8%

ODDS 2.08 · IMPLIED 48.1% EV -25.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

FF Jaro face SJK in Finland - Veikkausliiga on Friday, July 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FF Jaro a 47% chance, the draw 26% and SJK 28%, so FF Jaro are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for FF Jaro and 1.2 for SJK (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FF Jaro are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 0.75 for SJK. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +34.7%. This match finished 2-1.

FF Jaro vs SJK Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

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