Today / Finland - Veikkausliiga / Mariehamn vs Lahti

Mariehamn vs Lahti Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga

Regular Season - 16 ·Monday, July 20, 2026, 16:00

Mariehamn

PPG 0.43 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Lahti

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 56.6% vs bookmaker-implied 64.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.6%0-118.3%0-212.2%0-35.4%0-4+2.4%1 1-08.9%1-111.9%1-28.0%1-33.6%1-4+1.6%2 2-02.9%2-13.9%2-22.6%2-31.2%2-4+0.5%3 3-00.6%3-10.9%3-20.6%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 17.5% 18.2% 5.50 -2.3%

Draw 25.9% 26.0% 3.85 -0.2%

Away win 56.6% 64.9% 1.54 -12.8%

Over 2.5 45.1% 58.8% 1.70 -23.3%

Over 3.5 26.2% 36.4% 2.75 -16.8%

BTTS 48.5% 58.8% 1.70 -17.5%

Home O1.5 33.3% 27.8% 3.60 +19.9%

Away O1.5 38.5% 62.5% 1.60 -38.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 42%

BTTS 38%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -4.8%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 39%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob48.5%

A 57% / xG 0.7-1.3 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 18.3%

#2 0–0 13.6%

#3 1–1 11.9%

#4 0–2✓ 12.2%

#5 1–2 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mariehamn0.7

Lahti1.3

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.1% · O3.5 PROB 26.2%

Form & verdict PPG

MARIEHAMN · PPG 0.43

LAHTI · PPG 0.67

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.43), Away POOR (0.67)

Win probability 1X2

Mariehamn (H) 17.5%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV -2.3%

Draw 25.9%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -0.2%

Lahti (A) 56.6%

ODDS 1.54 · IMPLIED 64.9% EV -12.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Mariehamn face Lahti in Finland - Veikkausliiga on Monday, July 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mariehamn a 18% chance, the draw 26% and Lahti 57%, so Lahti are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Mariehamn and 1.3 for Lahti (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mariehamn are averaging 0.43 points per game versus 0.67 for Lahti. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +19.9%. This match finished 0-2.

Mariehamn vs Lahti Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

More Finland - Veikkausliiga Predictions