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Gnistan vs Mariehamn Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga

Matchday 15 ·Saturday, July 11, 2026, 14:00

Gnistan

PPG 1.86 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWWD

4 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Mariehamn

PPG 0.14 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWWW

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 71.5% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.9%0-12.6%0-20.7%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-012.1%1-16.5%1-21.7%1-30.3%1-4+0.0%2 2-015.1%2-18.0%2-22.1%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-012.5%3-16.7%3-21.8%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-014.1%4+-17.5%4+-22.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 71.5% 78.1% 1.28 -8.5%

Draw 18.3% 21.3% 4.70 -8.4%

Away win 10.3% 9.8% 10.25 +3.3%

Over 2.5 61.3% 65.4% 1.53 -6.2%

Over 3.5 37.5% 44.4% 2.25 -15.6%

BTTS 48.4% 57.8% 1.73 -16.3%

Home O1.5 63.0% 73.5% 1.36 -14.3%

Away O1.5 19.1% 23.1% 4.33 -10.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 84 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 43%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 13.4%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 61%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-2

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob48.4%

H 72% / xG 2.5-0.5 / O2.5 61% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 15.1%

#2 3–0 12.5%

#3 1–0 12.1%

#4 2–1 8.0%

#5 4–0 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gnistan2.5

Mariehamn0.5

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.3% · O3.5 PROB 37.5%

Form & verdict PPG

GNISTAN · PPG 1.86

MARIEHAMN · PPG 0.14

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in GOOD form (1.86), Away POOR (0.14) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Gnistan (H) 71.5%

ODDS 1.28 · IMPLIED 78.1% EV -8.5%

Draw 18.3%

ODDS 4.70 · IMPLIED 21.3% EV -8.4%

Mariehamn (A) 10.3%

ODDS 10.25 · IMPLIED 9.8% EV +3.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gnistan face Mariehamn in Finland - Veikkausliiga on Saturday, July 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gnistan a 72% chance, the draw 18% and Mariehamn 10%, so Gnistan are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Gnistan and 0.5 for Mariehamn (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gnistan are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 0.14 for Mariehamn. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +3.3%. This match finished 4-2.

Gnistan vs Mariehamn Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

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