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Oulu vs Gnistan Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga

Matchday 16 ·Saturday, July 18, 2026, 14:00

Oulu

PPG 2.67 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLWD

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Gnistan

PPG 0.86 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWWD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.5%0-17.9%0-23.7%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-013.1%1-112.1%1-25.6%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.0%2-19.3%2-24.3%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-05.1%3-14.8%3-22.2%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-12.6%4+-21.2%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.2% 46.5% 2.15 +1.5%

Draw 25.2% 29.0% 3.45 -7.8%

Away win 27.6% 33.3% 3.00 -10.3%

Over 2.5 52.1% 55.6% 1.80 -6.2%

Over 3.5 31.2% 33.3% 3.00 -6.4%

BTTS 52.6% 60.6% 1.65 -13.2%

Home O1.5 46.3% 48.8% 2.05 -5.1%

Away O1.5 27.9% 38.5% 2.60 -16.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 84 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 43%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 13.4%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.6%

H 47% / xG 1.5-0.9 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 1–0 13.1%

#3 0–0 8.5%

#4 2–0 10.0%

#5 2–1 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Oulu1.5

Gnistan0.9

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.1% · O3.5 PROB 31.2%

Form & verdict PPG

OULU · PPG 2.67

GNISTAN · PPG 0.86

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.67) vs P(Home)=47.2%

Win probability 1X2

Oulu (H) 47.2%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV +1.5%

Draw 25.2%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -7.8%

Gnistan (A) 27.6%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -10.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Oulu face Gnistan in Finland - Veikkausliiga on Saturday, July 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Oulu a 47% chance, the draw 25% and Gnistan 28%, so Oulu are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Oulu and 0.9 for Gnistan (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Oulu are averaging 2.67 points per game versus 0.86 for Gnistan. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +1.5%. This match finished 0-2.

Oulu vs Gnistan Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

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