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TPS vs Ilves Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga

Regular Season - 16 ·Monday, July 20, 2026, 15:00

TPS

PPG 2.38 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Ilves

PPG 0.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.1% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6% — a clear edge.

+10.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.7%0-13.0%0-21.7%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-06.8%1-17.5%1-24.2%1-31.6%1-4+0.5%2 2-08.4%2-19.4%2-25.2%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-07.0%3-17.8%3-24.3%3-31.6%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-08.0%4+-18.8%4+-24.9%4+-31.8%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.4% 40.0% 2.50 +48.5%

Draw 21.0% 29.0% 3.45 -16.5%

Away win 19.6% 40.0% 2.50 -30.6%

Over 2.5 67.1% 60.6% 1.65 +10.7%

Over 3.5 44.5% 38.5% 2.60 +15.7%

BTTS 62.4% 66.7% 1.50 -6.4%

Home O1.5 63.5% 47.6% 2.10 +33.4%

Away O1.5 36.2% 47.6% 2.10 -24.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 42%

BTTS 38%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -4.8%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 65%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob62.4%

H 59% / xG 2.5-1.1 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.4%

#2 1–1 7.5%

#3 2–0 8.4%

#4 3–1 7.8%

#5 3–0 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

TPS2.5

Ilves1.1

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.1% · O3.5 PROB 44.5%

Form & verdict PPG

TPS · PPG 2.38

ILVES · PPG 0.38

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.38) vs P(Home)=59.4%

Win probability 1X2

TPS (H) 59.4%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +48.5%

Draw 21.0%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -16.5%

Ilves (A) 19.6%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -30.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

TPS face Ilves in Finland - Veikkausliiga on Monday, July 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives TPS a 59% chance, the draw 21% and Ilves 20%, so TPS are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for TPS and 1.1 for Ilves (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, TPS are averaging 2.38 points per game versus 0.38 for Ilves. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +88.6%. This match finished 1-3.

TPS vs Ilves Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

More Finland - Veikkausliiga Predictions