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HJK Helsinki vs VPS Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga

Regular Season - 16 ·Saturday, July 18, 2026, 12:00

HJK Helsinki

PPG 1.57 · HOME

UPCOMING

VPS

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.5%0-111.5%0-26.3%0-32.3%0-4+0.8%1 1-012.2%1-113.3%1-27.3%1-32.7%1-4+0.9%2 2-07.0%2-17.7%2-24.2%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-02.7%3-13.0%3-21.6%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.1%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.4% 53.2% 1.88 -29.7%

Draw 27.3% 26.7% 3.75 +1.4%

Away win 35.3% 29.0% 3.45 +21.8%

Over 2.5 50.2% 64.5% 1.55 -22.2%

Over 3.5 29.0% 41.7% 2.40 -18.2%

BTTS 52.6% 67.6% 1.48 -22.1%

Home O1.5 35.6% 58.8% 1.70 -39.5%

Away O1.5 36.2% 41.7% 2.40 -13.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 41%

BTTS 36%

Score Hit 38%

ROI 6.4%

Bet Hit 68%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 21%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.6%

H 37% / xG 1.2-1.1 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 0–0 10.5%

#3 1–0 12.2%

#4 0–1 11.5%

#5 2–1 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

HJK Helsinki1.2

VPS1.1

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.2% · O3.5 PROB 29.0%

Form & verdict PPG

HJK HELSINKI · PPG 1.57

VPS · PPG 1.29

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.57), Away AVERAGE (1.29)

Win probability 1X2

HJK Helsinki (H) 37.4%

ODDS 1.88 · IMPLIED 53.2% EV -29.7%

Draw 27.3%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV +1.4%

VPS (A) 35.3%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV +21.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

HJK Helsinki face VPS in Finland - Veikkausliiga on Saturday, July 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives HJK Helsinki a 37% chance, the draw 27% and VPS 35%, so HJK Helsinki are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for HJK Helsinki and 1.1 for VPS (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, HJK Helsinki are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 1.29 for VPS. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +21.8%.

HJK Helsinki vs VPS Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

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