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Lahti vs HJK Helsinki Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga

Matchday 15 ·Saturday, July 11, 2026, 12:00

Lahti

PPG 1.50 · HOME

LAST 5

WDLWW

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

HJK Helsinki

PPG 1.57 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWLW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.6% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.4%0-19.7%0-26.4%0-32.8%0-4+1.2%1 1-09.5%1-112.5%1-28.2%1-33.6%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.2%2-18.1%2-25.3%2-32.3%2-4+1.0%3 3-02.7%3-13.5%3-22.3%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.5%4+-21.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.3% 33.3% 3.00 +17.9%

Draw 26.4% 28.2% 3.55 -3.8%

Away win 34.3% 47.6% 2.10 -28.0%

Over 2.5 54.0% 60.6% 1.65 -10.9%

Over 3.5 32.9% 38.5% 2.60 -14.5%

BTTS 55.6% 66.7% 1.50 -16.6%

Home O1.5 41.2% 42.6% 2.35 -3.2%

Away O1.5 38.4% 54.1% 1.85 -29.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 84 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 43%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 13.4%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob55.6%

H 39% / xG 1.3-1.3 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 0–0 7.4%

#3 1–2 8.2%

#4 2–1 8.1%

#5 0–1 9.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lahti1.3

HJK Helsinki1.3

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.0% · O3.5 PROB 32.9%

Form & verdict PPG

LAHTI · PPG 1.50

HJK HELSINKI · PPG 1.57

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.50), Away GOOD (1.57)

Win probability 1X2

Lahti (H) 39.3%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +17.9%

Draw 26.4%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -3.8%

HJK Helsinki (A) 34.3%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -28.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lahti face HJK Helsinki in Finland - Veikkausliiga on Saturday, July 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lahti a 39% chance, the draw 26% and HJK Helsinki 34%, so Lahti are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Lahti and 1.3 for HJK Helsinki (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lahti are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.57 for HJK Helsinki. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +17.9%. This match finished 2-0.

Lahti vs HJK Helsinki Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

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