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SJK vs KuPS Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga

Matchday 16 ·Saturday, July 18, 2026, 14:00

SJK

PPG 1.14 · HOME

LAST 5

WDLLD

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

KuPS

PPG 1.71 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.8 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.9% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.8%0-19.5%0-27.8%0-34.3%0-4+2.5%1 1-07.0%1-111.5%1-29.4%1-35.2%1-4+3.1%2 2-04.2%2-16.9%2-25.7%2-33.1%2-4+1.8%3 3-01.7%3-12.8%3-22.3%3-31.3%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.1%4+-20.9%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.0% 34.5% 2.90 -10.1%

Draw 24.7% 27.4% 3.65 -5.9%

Away win 44.3% 47.2% 2.12 -6.1%

Over 2.5 60.9% 64.5% 1.55 -5.6%

Over 3.5 37.4% 41.7% 2.40 -10.2%

BTTS 60.5% 69.0% 1.45 -12.3%

Home O1.5 38.2% 46.5% 2.15 -17.9%

Away O1.5 50.2% 55.6% 1.80 -9.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 84 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 43%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 13.4%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob60.5%

A 44% / xG 1.2-1.6 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 1–2 9.4%

#3 0–2✓ 7.8%

#4 0–1 9.5%

#5 0–0 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

SJK1.2

KuPS1.6

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.9% · O3.5 PROB 37.4%

Form & verdict PPG

SJK · PPG 1.14

KUPS · PPG 1.71

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.71) vs Home AVERAGE (1.14)

Win probability 1X2

SJK (H) 31.0%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -10.1%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -5.9%

KuPS (A) 44.3%

ODDS 2.12 · IMPLIED 47.2% EV -6.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

SJK face KuPS in Finland - Veikkausliiga on Saturday, July 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives SJK a 31% chance, the draw 25% and KuPS 44%, so KuPS are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for SJK and 1.6 for KuPS (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, SJK are averaging 1.14 points per game versus 1.71 for KuPS. This match finished 0-2.

SJK vs KuPS Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

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