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SalPa vs PKKU Prediction— Finland - Ykkonen

Group Stage ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 13:00

SalPa

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

PKKU

PPG 1.43 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 69.5% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.2%0-13.7%0-23.2%0-31.8%0-4+1.1%1 1-04.6%1-17.9%1-26.7%1-33.8%1-4+2.4%2 2-04.9%2-18.3%2-27.1%2-34.1%2-4+2.6%3 3-03.4%3-15.9%3-25.0%3-32.9%3-4+1.8%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-15.1%4+-24.3%4+-32.5%4+-4+1.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.4% 61.7% 1.62 -21.6%

Draw 21.8% 26.3% 3.80 -10.3%

Away win 29.8% 23.8% 4.20 +15.1%

Over 2.5 67.0% 73.5% 1.36 -8.9%

Over 3.5 49.6% 54.6% 1.83 -9.2%

BTTS 69.5% 71.4% 1.40 -2.7%

Home O1.5 61.8% 69.4% 1.44 -11.0%

Away O1.5 49.0% 45.5% 2.20 +7.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 12 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -26.8%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 63%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob69.5%

H 48% / xG 2.1-1.7 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 70%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.9%

#2 2–1 8.3%

#3 2–2 7.1%

#4 1–2 6.7%

#5 3–1 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

SalPa2.1

PKKU1.7

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.0% · O3.5 PROB 49.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SALPA · PPG 2.00

PKKU · PPG 1.43

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.41 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

SalPa (H) 48.4%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -21.6%

Draw 21.8%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -10.3%

PKKU (A) 29.8%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +15.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

SalPa face PKKU in Finland - Ykkonen on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives SalPa a 48% chance, the draw 22% and PKKU 30%, so SalPa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for SalPa and 1.7 for PKKU (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, SalPa are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.43 for PKKU. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +19.6%.

SalPa vs PKKU Prediction— Finland - Ykkonen

Match Preview & Prediction

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