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KPV Kokkola vs Rovaniemi Prediction— Finland - Ykkonen

Monday, July 20, 2026

KPV Kokkola

PPG 0.43 · HOME

UPCOMING

Rovaniemi

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs Home POOR (0.43)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.9%0-13.5%0-26.6%0-38.4%0-4+21.8%1 1-00.8%1-13.1%1-25.9%1-37.5%1-4+19.3%2 2-00.4%2-11.4%2-22.6%2-33.3%2-4+8.6%3 3-00.1%3-10.4%3-20.8%3-31.0%3-4+2.5%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.1%4+-20.2%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 12.7% — — —

Draw 17.5% — — —

Away win 69.7% — — —

Over 2.5 72.3% — — —

Over 3.5 52.4% — — —

BTTS 60.0% — — —

Home O1.5 33.3% — — —

Away O1.5 83.3% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 11 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 73%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -34.6%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 73%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)3.8 BTTS prob60.0%

A 70% / xG 0.9-3.8 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–3 8.4%

#2 0–4 8.0%

#3 1–3 7.5%

#4 1–4 7.1%

#5 0–2 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

KPV Kokkola0.9

Rovaniemi3.8

COMBINED 4.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.3% · O3.5 PROB 52.4%

Form & verdict PPG

KPV KOKKOLA · PPG 0.43

ROVANIEMI · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs Home POOR (0.43)

Win probability 1X2

KPV Kokkola (H) 12.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 17.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Rovaniemi (A) 69.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

KPV Kokkola face Rovaniemi in Finland - Ykkonen on Monday, July 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives KPV Kokkola a 13% chance, the draw 18% and Rovaniemi 70%, so Rovaniemi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for KPV Kokkola and 3.8 for Rovaniemi (4.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-3. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, KPV Kokkola are averaging 0.43 points per game versus 2.00 for Rovaniemi.

KPV Kokkola vs Rovaniemi Prediction— Finland - Ykkonen

Match Preview & Prediction

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