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Inter Turku B vs SalPa Prediction— Finland - Ykkonen

Group Stage ·Saturday, July 18, 2026, 14:00

Inter Turku B

PPG 1.14 · HOME

UPCOMING

SalPa

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 72.3% vs bookmaker-implied 82.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.5%0-13.4%0-23.9%0-33.0%0-4+2.9%1 1-02.8%1-16.5%1-27.4%1-35.7%1-4+5.6%2 2-02.7%2-16.2%2-27.2%2-35.5%2-4+5.4%3 3-01.7%3-14.0%3-24.6%3-33.5%3-4+3.5%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-13.0%4+-23.4%4+-32.6%4+-4+2.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.7% 23.1% 4.33 +41.6%

Draw 21.9% 25.0% 4.00 -7.4%

Away win 45.4% 63.7% 1.57 -28.7%

Over 2.5 72.3% 82.0% 1.22 -11.8%

Over 3.5 51.0% 63.7% 1.57 -19.9%

BTTS 69.3% 77.5% 1.29 -10.6%

Home O1.5 56.8% 47.6% 2.10 +19.3%

Away O1.5 67.9% 78.1% 1.28 -13.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 6 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 17%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 54%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)2.3 BTTS prob69.3%

A 45% / xG 1.9-2.3 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 7.4%

#2 1–1 6.5%

#3 2–2 7.2%

#4 2–1 6.2%

#5 1–3 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Inter Turku B1.9

SalPa2.3

COMBINED 4.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.3% · O3.5 PROB 51.0%

Form & verdict PPG

INTER TURKU B · PPG 1.14

SALPA · PPG 1.29

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.14), Away AVERAGE (1.29)

Win probability 1X2

Inter Turku B (H) 32.7%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +41.6%

Draw 21.9%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -7.4%

SalPa (A) 45.4%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -28.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Inter Turku B face SalPa in Finland - Ykkonen on Saturday, July 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Inter Turku B a 33% chance, the draw 22% and SalPa 45%, so SalPa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Inter Turku B and 2.3 for SalPa (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Inter Turku B are averaging 1.14 points per game versus 1.29 for SalPa. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +41.6%.

Inter Turku B vs SalPa Prediction— Finland - Ykkonen

Match Preview & Prediction

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