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Rops vs JJK Prediction— Finland - Ykkonen

Group Stage ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 13:00

Rops

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

JJK

PPG 1.71 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.0% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.4%0-13.6%0-22.7%0-31.4%0-4+0.7%1 1-05.3%1-18.0%1-26.0%1-33.0%1-4+1.6%2 2-05.9%2-18.9%2-26.7%2-33.4%2-4+1.8%3 3-04.4%3-16.6%3-25.0%3-32.5%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-04.1%4+-16.2%4+-24.7%4+-32.4%4+-4+1.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.6% 52.4% 1.91 -1.4%

Draw 21.7% 28.6% 3.50 -14.4%

Away win 26.7% 31.3% 3.20 -8.7%

Over 2.5 67.0% 71.4% 1.40 -6.2%

Over 3.5 44.5% 52.4% 1.91 -15.0%

BTTS 64.5% 73.5% 1.36 -12.3%

Home O1.5 61.8% 65.4% 1.53 -5.5%

Away O1.5 49.0% 47.6% 2.10 +2.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 12 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -26.8%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 64%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob64.5%

H 52% / xG 2.2-1.5 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.0%

#2 2–1 8.9%

#3 2–2 6.7%

#4 3–1 6.6%

#5 1–2 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rops2.2

JJK1.5

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.0% · O3.5 PROB 44.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ROPS · PPG 2.00

JJK · PPG 1.71

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.72 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Rops (H) 51.6%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -1.4%

Draw 21.7%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -14.4%

JJK (A) 26.7%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -8.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rops face JJK in Finland - Ykkonen on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rops a 52% chance, the draw 22% and JJK 27%, so Rops are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Rops and 1.5 for JJK (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 65% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rops are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.71 for JJK. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +7.9%.

Rops vs JJK Prediction— Finland - Ykkonen

Match Preview & Prediction

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