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PKKU vs VJS Prediction— Finland - Ykkonen

Group Stage ·Wednesday, July 22, 2026, 16:00

PKKU

PPG 1.71 · HOME

LAST 5

DWDDW

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

VJS

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWDDL

// Model verdict

BTTS 71% chance

Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.2%0-14.8%0-23.6%0-31.8%0-4+0.9%1 1-06.3%1-19.3%1-26.9%1-33.5%1-4+1.8%2 2-06.1%2-19.1%2-26.8%2-33.4%2-4+1.7%3 3-04.0%3-15.9%3-24.4%3-32.2%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-14.5%4+-23.3%4+-31.7%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.6% 38.2% 2.62 +29.9%

Draw 22.4% 28.6% 3.50 -13.0%

Away win 28.0% 45.5% 2.20 -23.0%

Over 2.5 63.7% 73.5% 1.36 -13.4%

Over 3.5 41.4% 54.6% 1.83 -24.2%

BTTS 63.9% 73.5% 1.36 -13.1%

Home O1.5 55.7% 54.6% 1.83 +1.9%

Away O1.5 49.0% 59.9% 1.67 -18.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob63.9%

H 50% / xG 1.9-1.5 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.3%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 1–2 6.9%

#4 2–2 6.8%

#5 2–0 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

PKKU1.9

VJS1.5

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 41.4%

Form & verdict PPG

PKKU · PPG 1.71

VJS · PPG 1.00

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

71%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.46 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

PKKU (H) 49.6%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV +29.9%

Draw 22.4%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -13.0%

VJS (A) 28.0%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -23.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

PKKU face VJS in Finland - Ykkonen on Wednesday, July 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives PKKU a 50% chance, the draw 22% and VJS 28%, so PKKU are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for PKKU and 1.5 for VJS (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, PKKU are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 1.00 for VJS. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +26.6%. This match finished 1-3.

PKKU vs VJS Prediction— Finland - Ykkonen

Match Preview & Prediction

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