Today / Finland - Ykkonen / VJS vs Tampere Utd

VJS vs Tampere Utd Prediction— Finland - Ykkonen

Group Stage ·Saturday, July 18, 2026, 14:00

VJS

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Tampere Utd

PPG 2.57 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.5% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.9%0-111.9%0-28.9%0-34.4%0-4+2.3%1 1-08.2%1-112.3%1-29.2%1-34.6%1-4+2.4%2 2-04.3%2-16.4%2-24.8%2-32.4%2-4+1.2%3 3-01.5%3-12.2%3-21.7%3-30.8%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.7%4+-20.5%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.9% 46.5% 2.15 -31.4%

Draw 25.2% 29.4% 3.40 -8.6%

Away win 42.8% 35.7% 2.80 +19.8%

Over 2.5 54.1% 66.7% 1.50 -18.9%

Over 3.5 33.2% 45.5% 2.20 -27.0%

BTTS 55.5% 71.4% 1.40 -22.3%

Home O1.5 35.6% 54.6% 1.83 -34.8%

Away O1.5 50.2% 50.0% 2.00 +0.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 6 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 17%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 28%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob55.5%

A 43% / xG 1.0-1.5 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 0–1 11.9%

#3 0–0 7.9%

#4 1–2 9.2%

#5 0–2 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

VJS1.0

Tampere Utd1.5

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.1% · O3.5 PROB 33.2%

Form & verdict PPG

VJS · PPG 2.00

TAMPERE UTD · PPG 2.57

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.57) vs Home EXCELLENT (2.00)

Win probability 1X2

VJS (H) 31.9%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -31.4%

Draw 25.2%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -8.6%

Tampere Utd (A) 42.8%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV +19.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

VJS face Tampere Utd in Finland - Ykkonen on Saturday, July 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives VJS a 32% chance, the draw 25% and Tampere Utd 43%, so Tampere Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for VJS and 1.5 for Tampere Utd (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, VJS are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 2.57 for Tampere Utd. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +19.8%.

VJS vs Tampere Utd Prediction— Finland - Ykkonen

Match Preview & Prediction

More Finland - Ykkonen Predictions