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FC jazz vs TPV Prediction— Finland - Ykkonen

Group Stage ·Friday, July 24, 2026, 16:00

FC jazz

PPG 0.57 · HOME

LAST 5

DDWDW

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

TPV

PPG 0.57 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDDWL

// Model verdict

BTTS 66% chance

Model probability 53.8% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.2%0-19.9%0-25.9%0-32.4%0-4+0.9%1 1-010.7%1-112.8%1-27.7%1-33.1%1-4+1.2%2 2-06.9%2-18.3%2-25.0%2-32.0%2-4+0.8%3 3-03.0%3-13.6%3-22.2%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.6%4+-20.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.6% 50.0% 2.00 -20.8%

Draw 26.2% 27.0% 3.70 -1.8%

Away win 34.1% 34.7% 2.88 -1.8%

Over 2.5 50.0% 69.4% 1.44 -28.0%

Over 3.5 28.7% 47.6% 2.10 -23.8%

BTTS 53.8% 71.4% 1.40 -24.7%

Home O1.5 38.5% 59.9% 1.67 -35.7%

Away O1.5 36.8% 50.0% 2.00 -26.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 20%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob53.8%

H 40% / xG 1.3-1.2 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–0 8.2%

#3 1–0 10.7%

#4 2–1 8.3%

#5 0–1 9.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC jazz1.3

TPV1.2

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

FC JAZZ · PPG 0.57

TPV · PPG 0.57

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

Chance this pick lands

66%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.10, combined xG 2.50 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

FC jazz (H) 39.6%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -20.8%

Draw 26.2%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -1.8%

TPV (A) 34.1%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -1.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC jazz face TPV in Finland - Ykkonen on Friday, July 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC jazz a 40% chance, the draw 26% and TPV 34%, so FC jazz are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for FC jazz and 1.2 for TPV (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC jazz are averaging 0.57 points per game versus 0.57 for TPV. This match finished 4-0.

FC jazz vs TPV Prediction— Finland - Ykkonen

Match Preview & Prediction

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