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TPV vs KuPS Ak. Prediction— Finland - Ykkonen

Group Stage ·Saturday, July 18, 2026, 13:00

TPV

PPG 1.29 · HOME

UPCOMING

KuPS Ak.

PPG 0.43 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.6%0-15.2%0-23.6%0-31.7%0-4+0.8%1 1-06.9%1-19.8%1-26.9%1-33.3%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.6%2-19.3%2-26.6%2-33.1%2-4+1.5%3 3-04.1%3-15.9%3-24.2%3-32.0%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-14.3%4+-23.0%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.1% 44.4% 2.25 +12.7%

Draw 22.3% 29.4% 3.40 -14.5%

Away win 27.6% 38.2% 2.62 -16.6%

Over 2.5 63.9% 75.2% 1.33 -15.0%

Over 3.5 42.2% 54.6% 1.83 -22.8%

BTTS 63.4% 75.2% 1.33 -15.7%

Home O1.5 56.8% 61.7% 1.62 -8.0%

Away O1.5 39.0% 55.6% 1.80 -29.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 6 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 17%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob63.4%

H 50% / xG 1.9-1.4 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.8%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–2 6.9%

#4 2–2 6.6%

#5 2–0 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

TPV1.9

KuPS Ak.1.4

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 42.2%

Form & verdict PPG

TPV · PPG 1.29

KUPS AK. · PPG 0.43

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.29) vs P(Home)=50.1%

Win probability 1X2

TPV (H) 50.1%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +12.7%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -14.5%

KuPS Ak. (A) 27.6%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -16.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

TPV face KuPS Ak. in Finland - Ykkonen on Saturday, July 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives TPV a 50% chance, the draw 22% and KuPS Ak. 28%, so TPV are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for TPV and 1.4 for KuPS Ak. (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, TPV are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 0.43 for KuPS Ak.. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +12.7%.

TPV vs KuPS Ak. Prediction— Finland - Ykkonen

Match Preview & Prediction

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