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JJK vs Jazz Pori Prediction— Finland - Ykkonen

Saturday, July 18, 2026

JJK

PPG 1.63 · HOME

UPCOMING

Jazz Pori

PPG 1.86 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.5%0-13.1%0-21.9%0-30.8%0-4+0.3%1 1-06.2%1-17.5%1-24.6%1-31.9%1-4+0.7%2 2-07.6%2-19.3%2-25.7%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-06.3%3-17.6%3-24.7%3-31.9%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-06.9%4+-18.5%4+-25.2%4+-32.1%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 60.4% — — —

Draw 20.5% — — —

Away win 19.2% — — —

Over 2.5 67.1% — — —

Over 3.5 44.5% — — —

BTTS 62.4% — — —

Home O1.5 63.3% — — —

Away O1.5 37.7% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 6 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 17%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 67%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob62.4%

H 60% / xG 2.5-1.2 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.3%

#2 1–1 7.5%

#3 3–1 7.6%

#4 2–0 7.6%

#5 3–0 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

JJK2.5

Jazz Pori1.2

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.1% · O3.5 PROB 44.5%

Form & verdict PPG

JJK · PPG 1.63

JAZZ PORI · PPG 1.86

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.63), Away GOOD (1.86)

Win probability 1X2

JJK (H) 60.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 20.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Jazz Pori (A) 19.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

JJK face Jazz Pori in Finland - Ykkonen on Saturday, July 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives JJK a 60% chance, the draw 21% and Jazz Pori 19%, so JJK are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for JJK and 1.2 for Jazz Pori (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, JJK are averaging 1.63 points per game versus 1.86 for Jazz Pori.

JJK vs Jazz Pori Prediction— Finland - Ykkonen

Match Preview & Prediction

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