Today / Finland - Ykkonen / PKKU vs OLS Oulu

PKKU vs OLS Oulu Prediction— Finland - Ykkonen

Group Stage ·Saturday, July 18, 2026, 13:00

PKKU

PPG 1.83 · HOME

UPCOMING

OLS Oulu

PPG 1.13 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.0% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.8%0-15.1%0-23.5%0-31.6%0-4+0.7%1 1-07.2%1-19.8%1-26.7%1-33.1%1-4+1.4%2 2-06.9%2-19.4%2-26.4%2-32.9%2-4+1.4%3 3-04.4%3-16.0%3-24.1%3-31.9%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-03.2%4+-14.4%4+-23.0%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.1% 41.7% 2.40 +20.2%

Draw 22.3% 26.7% 3.75 -9.8%

Away win 27.6% 43.5% 2.30 -21.9%

Over 2.5 64.0% 75.2% 1.33 -14.9%

Over 3.5 42.3% 55.6% 1.80 -23.9%

BTTS 63.4% 76.9% 1.30 -17.6%

Home O1.5 56.8% 59.9% 1.67 -5.1%

Away O1.5 39.0% 59.9% 1.67 -34.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 6 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 17%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob63.4%

H 50% / xG 1.9-1.4 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.8%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 2–0 6.9%

#4 1–2 6.7%

#5 2–2 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

PKKU1.9

OLS Oulu1.4

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.0% · O3.5 PROB 42.3%

Form & verdict PPG

PKKU · PPG 1.83

OLS OULU · PPG 1.13

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.83) > Away AVERAGE (1.13)

Win probability 1X2

PKKU (H) 50.1%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV +20.2%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -9.8%

OLS Oulu (A) 27.6%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -21.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

PKKU face OLS Oulu in Finland - Ykkonen on Saturday, July 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives PKKU a 50% chance, the draw 22% and OLS Oulu 28%, so PKKU are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for PKKU and 1.4 for OLS Oulu (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, PKKU are averaging 1.83 points per game versus 1.13 for OLS Oulu. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +20.2%.

PKKU vs OLS Oulu Prediction— Finland - Ykkonen

Match Preview & Prediction

More Finland - Ykkonen Predictions