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IFK Varnamo vs IK brage Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Regular Season - 16 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 13:00

IFK Varnamo

PPG 1.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

IK brage

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.0% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.4%0-15.0%0-25.2%0-33.6%0-4+3.0%1 1-04.0%1-18.3%1-28.6%1-36.0%1-4+5.0%2 2-03.3%2-16.8%2-27.1%2-34.9%2-4+4.1%3 3-01.8%3-13.7%3-23.9%3-32.7%3-4+2.3%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-12.2%4+-22.3%4+-31.6%4+-4+1.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.4% 44.4% 2.25 -20.3%

Draw 21.6% 27.0% 3.70 -12.0%

Away win 43.0% 35.1% 2.85 +22.6%

Over 2.5 67.0% 63.7% 1.57 +5.2%

Over 3.5 44.5% 40.8% 2.45 +9.0%

BTTS 64.5% 67.6% 1.48 -4.5%

Home O1.5 53.5% 54.1% 1.85 -1.0%

Away O1.5 52.3% 47.6% 2.10 +9.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -1.8%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 57%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob64.5%

A 43% / xG 1.6-2.1 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.3%

#2 1–2 8.6%

#3 2–2 7.1%

#4 2–1 6.8%

#5 1–3 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

IFK Varnamo1.6

IK brage2.1

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.0% · O3.5 PROB 44.5%

Form & verdict PPG

IFK VARNAMO · PPG 1.00

IK BRAGE · PPG 1.25

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.44 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

IFK Varnamo (H) 35.4%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -20.3%

Draw 21.6%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -12.0%

IK brage (A) 43.0%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV +22.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

IFK Varnamo face IK brage in Sweden - Superettan on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives IFK Varnamo a 35% chance, the draw 22% and IK brage 43%, so IK brage are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for IFK Varnamo and 2.1 for IK brage (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 65% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, IFK Varnamo are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.25 for IK brage. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +26.0%.

IFK Varnamo vs IK brage Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Match Preview & Prediction

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