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Norrkoping vs Norrby Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Matchday 14 ·Sunday, June 28, 2026, 13:00

Norrkoping

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWW

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Norrby

PPG 0.71 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWLDL

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 62.8% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.1%0-14.8%0-21.6%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-014.0%1-19.4%1-23.2%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.8%2-19.3%2-23.1%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-09.1%3-16.1%3-22.1%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-07.0%4+-14.7%4+-21.6%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 62.8% 69.0% 1.45 -8.9%

Draw 21.1% 22.7% 4.40 -4.3%

Away win 16.1% 15.6% 6.40 +1.8%

Over 2.5 50.2% 63.7% 1.57 -21.2%

Over 3.5 29.0% 41.7% 2.40 -18.2%

BTTS 48.1% 60.6% 1.65 -20.6%

Home O1.5 54.4% 69.0% 1.45 -21.1%

Away O1.5 22.9% 28.6% 3.50 -11.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 105 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -3.8%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.1%

H 63% / xG 2.0-0.7 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.8%

#2 1–0 14.0%

#3 1–1 9.4%

#4 2–1 9.3%

#5 3–0 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Norrkoping2.0

Norrby0.7

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.2% · O3.5 PROB 29.0%

Form & verdict PPG

NORRKOPING · PPG 2.00

NORRBY · PPG 0.71

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=62.8%

Win probability 1X2

Norrkoping (H) 62.8%

ODDS 1.45 · IMPLIED 69.0% EV -8.9%

Draw 21.1%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -4.3%

Norrby (A) 16.1%

ODDS 6.40 · IMPLIED 15.6% EV +1.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Norrkoping face Norrby in Sweden - Superettan on Sunday, June 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Norrkoping a 63% chance, the draw 21% and Norrby 16%, so Norrkoping are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Norrkoping and 0.7 for Norrby (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Norrkoping are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.71 for Norrby. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +1.8%. This match finished 0-1.

Norrkoping vs Norrby Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Match Preview & Prediction

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