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Oddevold vs Ljungskile Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Matchday 13 ·Monday, June 22, 2026, 17:00

Oddevold

PPG 1.33 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Ljungskile

PPG 0.83 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 62.6% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+9.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.4%0-15.5%0-23.5%0-31.5%0-4+0.6%1 1-08.2%1-110.3%1-26.5%1-32.7%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.6%2-19.6%2-26.1%2-32.6%2-4+1.1%3 3-04.7%3-16.0%3-23.8%3-31.6%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-03.4%4+-14.3%4+-22.7%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.6% 52.6% 1.90 -5.8%

Draw 23.9% 27.8% 3.60 -8.4%

Away win 26.5% 26.7% 3.75 -0.4%

Over 2.5 62.6% 57.1% 1.75 +9.6%

Over 3.5 40.0% 35.1% 2.85 +14.0%

BTTS 61.7% 62.5% 1.60 -1.3%

Home O1.5 55.9% 55.6% 1.80 +0.6%

Away O1.5 34.4% 36.4% 2.75 -5.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 73 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -3.5%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob61.7%

H 50% / xG 1.9-1.3 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.3%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 2–0 7.6%

#4 1–0 8.2%

#5 1–2 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Oddevold1.9

Ljungskile1.3

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.6% · O3.5 PROB 40.0%

Form & verdict PPG

ODDEVOLD · PPG 1.33

LJUNGSKILE · PPG 0.83

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.33) > Away POOR (0.83)

Win probability 1X2

Oddevold (H) 49.6%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -5.8%

Draw 23.9%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -8.4%

Ljungskile (A) 26.5%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -0.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Oddevold face Ljungskile in Sweden - Superettan on Monday, June 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Oddevold a 50% chance, the draw 24% and Ljungskile 27%, so Oddevold are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Oddevold and 1.3 for Ljungskile (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Oddevold are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 0.83 for Ljungskile. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +14.0%. This match finished 0-0.

Oddevold vs Ljungskile Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Match Preview & Prediction

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