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Brage vs Falkenberg Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Regular Season - 14 ·Friday, June 26, 2026, 17:00

Brage

PPG 1.00 · HOME

2 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Falkenberg

PPG 1.83 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 68.6% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.7%0-13.6%0-23.8%0-32.7%0-4+2.3%1 1-03.4%1-17.1%1-27.5%1-35.2%1-4+4.5%2 2-03.3%2-17.0%2-27.3%2-35.1%2-4+4.4%3 3-02.2%3-14.5%3-24.8%3-33.3%3-4+2.8%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-13.5%4+-23.7%4+-32.6%4+-4+2.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 42.2% 2.45 +3.4%

Draw 21.5% 3.55 -14.2%

Away win 36.3% 2.65 -3.8%

Over 2.5 67.7% 1.62 +9.7%

Over 3.5 48.3% 2.55 +23.2%

BTTS 68.6% 1.48 +1.5%

Home Over 1.5 54.4% 1.95 +6.1%

Away Over 1.5 50.0% 2.10 +5.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -2.7%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-4

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob68.6%

A 36% / xG 2.0-2.1 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.1%

#2 1–2 7.5%

#3 2–2 7.3%

#4 2–1 7.0%

#5 1–3 5.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Brage2.0

Falkenberg2.1

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.7% · O3.5 PROB 48.3%

Form & verdict PPG

BRAGE · PPG 1.00

FALKENBERG · PPG 1.83

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ MIXED SIGNALS - Model favors home but form suggests away strength ...

48%

CAUTION_HOME

Caution: Away form (1.83) strong but model favors Home (P=42.2%)

Win probability 1X2

Brage (H) 42.2%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV +3.4%

Draw 21.5%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -14.2%

Falkenberg (A) 36.3%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV -3.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Brage face Falkenberg in Sweden - Superettan on Friday, June 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Brage a 42% chance, the draw 22% and Falkenberg 36%, so Brage are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Brage and 2.1 for Falkenberg (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Brage are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.83 for Falkenberg. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +29.5%. This match finished 2-4.

Brage vs Falkenberg Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Match Preview & Prediction

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