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Sandviken vs Helsingborg Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Matchday 14 ·Sunday, June 28, 2026, 15:00

Sandviken

PPG 1.57 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLDD

4 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Helsingborg

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLDLD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 66.1% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.9%0-14.4%0-23.3%0-31.7%0-4+0.9%1 1-06.0%1-18.9%1-26.7%1-33.4%1-4+1.8%2 2-06.0%2-19.1%2-26.8%2-33.4%2-4+1.8%3 3-04.1%3-16.1%3-24.6%3-32.3%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-14.9%4+-23.7%4+-31.9%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.3% 46.5% 2.15 +6.0%

Draw 22.5% 27.4% 3.65 -10.7%

Away win 28.2% 33.3% 3.00 -9.2%

Over 2.5 66.1% 61.7% 1.62 +7.1%

Over 3.5 43.6% 38.5% 2.60 +13.4%

BTTS 63.5% 66.7% 1.50 -4.8%

Home O1.5 54.7% 54.1% 1.85 +1.2%

Away O1.5 49.7% 44.4% 2.25 +11.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 105 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -3.8%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-2

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob63.5%

H 49% / xG 2.0-1.5 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.9%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 2–2 6.8%

#4 1–2 6.7%

#5 3–1 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sandviken2.0

Helsingborg1.5

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.1% · O3.5 PROB 43.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SANDVIKEN · PPG 1.57

HELSINGBORG · PPG 1.40

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.57), Away AVERAGE (1.40)

Win probability 1X2

Sandviken (H) 49.3%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV +6.0%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -10.7%

Helsingborg (A) 28.2%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -9.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sandviken face Helsingborg in Sweden - Superettan on Sunday, June 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sandviken a 49% chance, the draw 23% and Helsingborg 28%, so Sandviken are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Sandviken and 1.5 for Helsingborg (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sandviken are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 1.40 for Helsingborg. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +17.5%. This match finished 4-2.

Sandviken vs Helsingborg Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Match Preview & Prediction

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