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Varberg BoIS vs Oster Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Regular Season - 14 ·Saturday, June 27, 2026, 13:00

Varberg BoIS

PPG 1.86 · HOME

UPCOMING

Oster

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.4% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.4%0-14.2%0-22.6%0-31.1%0-4+0.4%1 1-07.2%1-19.0%1-25.6%1-32.3%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.7%2-19.6%2-26.0%2-32.5%2-4+1.0%3 3-05.5%3-16.9%3-24.3%3-31.8%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-04.9%4+-16.1%4+-23.8%4+-31.6%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 51.0% 1.85 -5.7%

Draw 21.7% 3.70 -11.8%

Away win 27.3% 3.85 +3.1%

Over 2.5 64.4% 1.67 +7.5%

Over 3.5 41.8% 2.65 +10.8%

BTTS 61.6% 1.57 -3.3%

Home Over 1.5 60.6% 1.73 +4.8%

Away Over 1.5 38.9% 2.70 +5.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -2.7%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob61.6%

H 51% / xG 2.1-1.2 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.0%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 2–0 7.7%

#4 3–1 6.9%

#5 2–2 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Varberg BoIS2.1

Oster1.2

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.4% · O3.5 PROB 41.8%

Form & verdict PPG

VARBERG BOIS · PPG 1.86

OSTER · PPG 1.17

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.86) > Away AVERAGE (1.17)

Win probability 1X2

Varberg BoIS (H) 51.0%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -5.7%

Draw 21.7%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -11.8%

Oster (A) 27.3%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV +3.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Varberg BoIS face Oster in Sweden - Superettan on Saturday, June 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Varberg BoIS a 51% chance, the draw 22% and Oster 27%, so Varberg BoIS are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Varberg BoIS and 1.2 for Oster (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Varberg BoIS are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 1.17 for Oster. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +13.7%.

Varberg BoIS vs Oster Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Match Preview & Prediction

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