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Landskrona vs Varnamo Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Matchday 14 ·Sunday, June 28, 2026, 13:00

Landskrona

PPG 1.50 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDDD

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Varnamo

PPG 0.43 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDDW

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 67.3% vs bookmaker-implied 52.6% — a clear edge.

+27.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.3%0-12.9%0-21.3%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-08.3%1-17.3%1-23.2%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-010.6%2-19.3%2-24.0%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-09.0%3-17.9%3-23.4%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-010.5%4+-19.2%4+-24.0%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 67.3% 52.6% 1.90 +27.9%

Draw 18.2% 27.4% 3.65 -20.1%

Away win 14.5% 27.0% 3.70 -27.8%

Over 2.5 64.6% 59.9% 1.67 +7.9%

Over 3.5 41.9% 37.7% 2.65 +11.0%

BTTS 53.4% 64.5% 1.55 -17.2%

Home O1.5 61.9% 56.5% 1.77 +9.6%

Away O1.5 22.9% 38.2% 2.62 -24.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 105 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -3.8%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 58%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob53.4%

H 67% / xG 2.5-0.9 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.6%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 3–0 9.0%

#4 1–1 7.3%

#5 3–1 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Landskrona2.5

Varnamo0.9

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.6% · O3.5 PROB 41.9%

Form & verdict PPG

LANDSKRONA · PPG 1.50

VARNAMO · PPG 0.43

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in GOOD form (1.50), Away POOR (0.43) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Landskrona (H) 67.3%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV +27.9%

Draw 18.2%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -20.1%

Varnamo (A) 14.5%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -27.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Landskrona face Varnamo in Sweden - Superettan on Sunday, June 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Landskrona a 67% chance, the draw 18% and Varnamo 14%, so Landskrona are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Landskrona and 0.9 for Varnamo (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Landskrona are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.43 for Varnamo. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +47.4%. This match finished 1-0.

Landskrona vs Varnamo Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Match Preview & Prediction

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