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Degerfors IF vs Djurgardens IF Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Regular Season - 14 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 13:00

Degerfors IF

PPG 0.71 · HOME

UPCOMING

Djurgardens IF

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.7% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.2%0-110.4%0-210.4%0-36.9%0-4+5.5%1 1-05.0%1-110.0%1-29.9%1-36.6%1-4+5.2%2 2-02.4%2-14.7%2-24.7%2-33.2%2-4+2.5%3 3-00.8%3-11.5%3-21.5%3-31.0%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.4%4+-20.4%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 19.5% 21.7% 4.60 -6.2%

Draw 22.6% 26.7% 3.75 -9.2%

Away win 58.0% 58.8% 1.70 -1.4%

Over 2.5 60.7% 57.8% 1.73 +5.0%

Over 3.5 38.9% 35.7% 2.80 +8.9%

BTTS 55.4% 61.7% 1.62 -10.3%

Home O1.5 34.5% 31.3% 3.20 +10.4%

Away O1.5 49.0% 59.9% 1.67 -18.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 39%

ROI 10.2%

Bet Hit 68%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 54%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob55.4%

A 58% / xG 1.0-2.0 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.0%

#2 0–2 10.4%

#3 1–2 9.9%

#4 0–1 10.4%

#5 0–3 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Degerfors IF1.0

Djurgardens IF2.0

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.7% · O3.5 PROB 38.9%

Form & verdict PPG

DEGERFORS IF · PPG 0.71

DJURGARDENS IF · PPG 2.00

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -1.05 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Degerfors IF (H) 19.5%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV -6.2%

Draw 22.6%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -9.2%

Djurgardens IF (A) 58.0%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -1.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Degerfors IF face Djurgardens IF in Sweden - Allsvenskan on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Degerfors IF a 20% chance, the draw 23% and Djurgardens IF 58%, so Djurgardens IF are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Degerfors IF and 2.0 for Djurgardens IF (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Degerfors IF are averaging 0.71 points per game versus 2.00 for Djurgardens IF. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +10.4%.

Degerfors IF vs Djurgardens IF Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Match Preview & Prediction

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