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AIK vs GAIS Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Matchday 13 ·Saturday, July 18, 2026, 13:00

AIK

PPG 1.20 · HOME

LAST 5

DLWWW

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

GAIS

PPG 0.83 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWLLW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.1%0-111.2%0-26.9%0-32.9%0-4+1.2%1 1-010.6%1-113.1%1-28.1%1-33.3%1-4+1.3%2 2-06.1%2-17.6%2-24.7%2-31.9%2-4+0.8%3 3-02.4%3-12.9%3-21.8%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.1%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.4% 37.7% 2.65 -0.9%

Draw 27.3% 29.4% 3.40 -4.3%

Away win 35.3% 40.0% 2.50 -11.8%

Over 2.5 50.2% 54.1% 1.85 -7.1%

Over 3.5 29.0% 32.3% 3.10 -6.1%

BTTS 52.6% 61.7% 1.62 -14.8%

Home O1.5 35.6% 42.6% 2.35 -16.3%

Away O1.5 37.7% 44.4% 2.25 -15.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 89 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -9.4%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 19%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob52.6%

H 37% / xG 1.2-1.2 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–0 9.1%

#3 0–1 11.2%

#4 1–0 10.6%

#5 1–2 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

AIK1.2

GAIS1.2

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.2% · O3.5 PROB 29.0%

Form & verdict PPG

AIK · PPG 1.20

GAIS · PPG 0.83

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.20) > Away POOR (0.83)

Win probability 1X2

AIK (H) 37.4%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV -0.9%

Draw 27.3%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -4.3%

GAIS (A) 35.3%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -11.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

AIK face GAIS in Sweden - Allsvenskan on Saturday, July 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives AIK a 37% chance, the draw 27% and GAIS 35%, so AIK are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for AIK and 1.2 for GAIS (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, AIK are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 0.83 for GAIS. This match finished 2-0.

AIK vs GAIS Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Match Preview & Prediction

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