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Kalmar vs Malmo FF Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Regular Season - 13 ·Monday, July 20, 2026, 17:00

Kalmar

PPG 2.17 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Malmo FF

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.5% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.5%0-18.8%0-25.2%0-32.1%0-4+0.8%1 1-010.5%1-112.5%1-27.4%1-32.9%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.4%2-18.8%2-25.2%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-03.5%3-14.1%3-22.4%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-12.0%4+-21.2%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.4% 37.7% 2.65 +7.1%

Draw 24.9% 27.8% 3.60 -6.2%

Away win 34.7% 41.7% 2.40 -16.7%

Over 2.5 54.1% 59.9% 1.67 -9.7%

Over 3.5 33.2% 37.7% 2.65 -12.0%

BTTS 55.5% 66.7% 1.50 -16.8%

Home O1.5 45.9% 46.5% 2.15 -1.3%

Away O1.5 36.4% 50.0% 2.00 -27.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 39%

ROI 10.2%

Bet Hit 68%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.5%

H 40% / xG 1.4-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 0–0 7.5%

#3 2–1 8.8%

#4 1–0 10.5%

#5 2–0 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kalmar1.4

Malmo FF1.2

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.1% · O3.5 PROB 33.2%

Form & verdict PPG

KALMAR · PPG 2.17

MALMO FF · PPG 1.67

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.17) > Away GOOD (1.67)

Win probability 1X2

Kalmar (H) 40.4%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV +7.1%

Draw 24.9%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -6.2%

Malmo FF (A) 34.7%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -16.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kalmar face Malmo FF in Sweden - Allsvenskan on Monday, July 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kalmar a 40% chance, the draw 25% and Malmo FF 35%, so Kalmar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Kalmar and 1.2 for Malmo FF (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kalmar are averaging 2.17 points per game versus 1.67 for Malmo FF. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +7.1%. This match finished 2-2.

Kalmar vs Malmo FF Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Match Preview & Prediction

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