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Orgryte vs Djurgarden Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Regular Season - 13 ·Monday, July 20, 2026, 17:00

Orgryte

PPG 1.00 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Djurgarden

PPG 2.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 72.3% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.3%0-13.7%0-25.4%0-35.4%0-4+8.2%1 1-01.8%1-15.3%1-27.8%1-37.7%1-4+11.7%2 2-01.3%2-13.8%2-25.6%2-35.5%2-4+8.3%3 3-00.6%3-11.8%3-22.7%3-32.6%3-4+4.0%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.9%4+-21.3%4+-31.3%4+-4+2.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 20.9% 16.0% 6.25 +18.4%

Draw 16.9% 20.8% 4.80 -11.3%

Away win 62.2% 69.4% 1.44 -10.4%

Over 2.5 72.3% 69.0% 1.45 +4.8%

Over 3.5 52.3% 47.6% 2.10 +9.8%

BTTS 66.0% 64.5% 1.55 +2.3%

Home O1.5 45.9% 31.3% 3.20 +46.9%

Away O1.5 69.1% 73.5% 1.36 -6.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 39%

ROI 10.2%

Bet Hit 68%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 68%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)2.9 BTTS prob66.0%

A 62% / xG 1.4-2.9 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 66%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 7.8%

#2 1–3 7.7%

#3 1–1 5.3%

#4 1–4 5.6%

#5 2–2 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Orgryte1.4

Djurgarden2.9

COMBINED 4.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.3% · O3.5 PROB 52.3%

Form & verdict PPG

ORGRYTE · PPG 1.00

DJURGARDEN · PPG 2.25

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.25) vs Home AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Orgryte (H) 20.9%

ODDS 6.25 · IMPLIED 16.0% EV +18.4%

Draw 16.9%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV -11.3%

Djurgarden (A) 62.2%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -10.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Orgryte face Djurgarden in Sweden - Allsvenskan on Monday, July 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Orgryte a 21% chance, the draw 17% and Djurgarden 62%, so Djurgarden are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Orgryte and 2.9 for Djurgarden (4.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 66% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Orgryte are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 2.25 for Djurgarden. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +46.9%. This match finished 0-0.

Orgryte vs Djurgarden Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Match Preview & Prediction

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