Today / Sweden - Allsvenskan / Vasteras SK FK vs Orgryte IS

Vasteras SK FK vs Orgryte IS Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Regular Season - 14 ·Friday, July 24, 2026, 17:00

Vasteras SK FK

PPG 1.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Orgryte IS

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 77.3% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6% — a clear edge.

+14.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.4%0-11.6%0-20.9%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-04.4%1-15.0%1-22.8%1-31.1%1-4+0.4%2 2-06.9%2-17.8%2-24.4%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-07.2%3-18.2%3-24.6%3-31.7%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-012.3%4+-113.9%4+-27.9%4+-33.0%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.1% 66.7% 1.50 -3.9%

Draw 16.6% 22.7% 4.40 -16.2%

Away win 19.3% 17.9% 5.60 +4.9%

Over 2.5 72.6% 64.5% 1.55 +12.5%

Over 3.5 51.5% 41.7% 2.40 +23.6%

BTTS 63.9% 61.7% 1.62 +3.5%

Home O1.5 77.3% 67.6% 1.48 +14.4%

Away O1.5 36.4% 30.3% 3.30 +20.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 39%

ROI 10.2%

Bet Hit 68%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 67%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.1 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob63.9%

H 64% / xG 3.1-1.1 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 8.2%

#2 2–1 7.8%

#3 3–0 7.2%

#4 2–0 6.9%

#5 4–1 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vasteras SK FK3.1

Orgryte IS1.1

COMBINED 4.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.6% · O3.5 PROB 51.5%

Form & verdict PPG

VASTERAS SK FK · PPG 1.00

ORGRYTE IS · PPG 0.50

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.00 for Home, form 1.00 vs 0.50 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Vasteras SK FK (H) 64.1%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -3.9%

Draw 16.6%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -16.2%

Orgryte IS (A) 19.3%

ODDS 5.60 · IMPLIED 17.9% EV +4.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vasteras SK FK face Orgryte IS in Sweden - Allsvenskan on Friday, July 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vasteras SK FK a 64% chance, the draw 17% and Orgryte IS 19%, so Vasteras SK FK are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.1 for Vasteras SK FK and 1.1 for Orgryte IS (4.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vasteras SK FK are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.50 for Orgryte IS. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +24.6%.

Vasteras SK FK vs Orgryte IS Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Match Preview & Prediction

More Sweden - Allsvenskan Predictions