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Vasteras SK FK vs Orgryte IS Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Matchday 14 ·Friday, July 24, 2026, 17:00

Vasteras SK FK

PPG 1.00 · HOME

LAST 5

WLDWL

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Orgryte IS

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLDL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5 71% chance

Model probability 77.3% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6% — a clear edge.

+14.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.6%0-11.8%0-21.0%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-04.8%1-15.3%1-23.0%1-31.1%1-4+0.4%2 2-07.3%2-18.1%2-24.5%2-31.6%2-4+0.6%3 3-07.4%3-18.2%3-24.5%3-31.7%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-011.9%4+-113.2%4+-27.3%4+-32.7%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.1% 65.4% 1.53 -1.9%

Draw 16.6% 22.7% 4.40 -16.2%

Away win 19.3% 18.5% 5.40 +2.5%

Over 2.5 70.9% 64.5% 1.55 +9.9%

Over 3.5 49.7% 41.7% 2.40 +19.3%

BTTS 63.5% 61.7% 1.62 +2.9%

Home O1.5 77.3% 67.6% 1.48 +14.4%

Away O1.5 36.4% 31.3% 3.20 +16.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 93 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -11.8%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 65%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)3.0 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob63.5%

H 64% / xG 3.0-1.1 / O2.5 71% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 8.2%

#2 2–1 8.1%

#3 3–0 7.4%

#4 2–0✓ 7.3%

#5 4–1 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vasteras SK FK3.0

Orgryte IS1.1

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 70.9% · O3.5 PROB 49.7%

Form & verdict PPG

VASTERAS SK FK · PPG 1.00

ORGRYTE IS · PPG 0.50

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

Chance this pick lands

71%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.93 for Home, form 1.00 vs 0.50 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Vasteras SK FK (H) 64.1%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -1.9%

Draw 16.6%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -16.2%

Orgryte IS (A) 19.3%

ODDS 5.40 · IMPLIED 18.5% EV +2.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vasteras SK FK face Orgryte IS in Sweden - Allsvenskan on Friday, July 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vasteras SK FK a 64% chance, the draw 17% and Orgryte IS 19%, so Vasteras SK FK are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.0 for Vasteras SK FK and 1.1 for Orgryte IS (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 71% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vasteras SK FK are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.50 for Orgryte IS. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +21.4%. This match finished 2-0.

Vasteras SK FK vs Orgryte IS Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Match Preview & Prediction

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