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IFK Goteborg vs Brommapojkarna Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Matchday 13 ·Friday, July 17, 2026, 17:00

IFK Goteborg

PPG 0.40 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLDW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Brommapojkarna

PPG 1.57 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWWL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 63.4% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-18.5%0-27.2%0-34.1%0-4+2.5%1 1-06.5%1-111.0%1-29.3%1-35.3%1-4+3.3%2 2-04.2%2-17.2%2-26.1%2-33.4%2-4+2.1%3 3-01.8%3-13.1%3-22.6%3-31.5%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.3%4+-21.1%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.5% 52.6% 1.90 -38.3%

Draw 24.4% 27.0% 3.70 -5.8%

Away win 43.1% 27.4% 3.65 +57.3%

Over 2.5 63.4% 61.7% 1.62 +2.7%

Over 3.5 40.1% 38.5% 2.60 +4.3%

BTTS 62.4% 65.4% 1.53 -4.5%

Home O1.5 41.1% 57.8% 1.73 -28.9%

Away O1.5 50.2% 39.2% 2.55 +28.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 89 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -9.4%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob62.4%

A 43% / xG 1.3-1.7 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.0%

#2 1–2 9.3%

#3 0–2 7.2%

#4 2–1✓ 7.2%

#5 0–1 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

IFK Goteborg1.3

Brommapojkarna1.7

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.4% · O3.5 PROB 40.1%

Form & verdict PPG

IFK GOTEBORG · PPG 0.40

BROMMAPOJKARNA · PPG 1.57

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.57) vs Home POOR (0.40)

Win probability 1X2

IFK Goteborg (H) 32.5%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -38.3%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -5.8%

Brommapojkarna (A) 43.1%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV +57.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

IFK Goteborg face Brommapojkarna in Sweden - Allsvenskan on Friday, July 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives IFK Goteborg a 33% chance, the draw 24% and Brommapojkarna 43%, so Brommapojkarna are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for IFK Goteborg and 1.7 for Brommapojkarna (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, IFK Goteborg are averaging 0.40 points per game versus 1.57 for Brommapojkarna. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +57.3%. This match finished 2-1.

IFK Goteborg vs Brommapojkarna Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Match Preview & Prediction

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