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Mjallby vs Vasteras Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Matchday 13 ·Friday, July 17, 2026, 17:00

Mjallby

PPG 1.20 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLWL

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Vasteras

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLDW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.8%0-15.2%0-23.5%0-31.6%0-4+0.7%1 1-07.2%1-19.9%1-26.7%1-33.1%1-4+1.4%2 2-06.9%2-19.4%2-26.4%2-32.9%2-4+1.3%3 3-04.4%3-16.0%3-24.1%3-31.9%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-03.2%4+-14.4%4+-23.0%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.8% 54.6% 1.83 -8.9%

Draw 22.1% 27.8% 3.60 -12.3%

Away win 28.1% 24.4% 4.10 +9.1%

Over 2.5 63.9% 59.9% 1.67 +6.7%

Over 3.5 42.3% 37.7% 2.65 +12.1%

BTTS 63.4% 63.7% 1.57 -0.5%

Home O1.5 56.8% 57.8% 1.73 -1.7%

Away O1.5 39.0% 36.4% 2.75 +7.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 89 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -9.4%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob63.4%

H 50% / xG 1.9-1.4 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.9%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 2–0 6.9%

#4 1–2 6.7%

#5 2–2 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mjallby1.9

Vasteras1.4

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 42.3%

Form & verdict PPG

MJALLBY · PPG 1.20

VASTERAS · PPG 2.00

⚠ MIXED SIGNALS - Model favors home but form suggests away strength

70%

CAUTION_HOME

Caution: Away form (2.00) strong but model favors Home (P=49.8%)

Win probability 1X2

Mjallby (H) 49.8%

ODDS 1.83 · IMPLIED 54.6% EV -8.9%

Draw 22.1%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -12.3%

Vasteras (A) 28.1%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +9.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Mjallby face Vasteras in Sweden - Allsvenskan on Friday, July 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mjallby a 50% chance, the draw 22% and Vasteras 28%, so Mjallby are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Mjallby and 1.4 for Vasteras (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mjallby are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 2.00 for Vasteras. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +12.1%. This match finished 0-0.

Mjallby vs Vasteras Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Match Preview & Prediction

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