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Elfsborg vs Sirius Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Regular Season - 13 ·Sunday, July 19, 2026, 14:30

Elfsborg

PPG 1.71 · HOME

UPCOMING

Sirius

PPG 2.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.4% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-19.0%0-27.3%0-33.9%0-4+2.3%1 1-07.1%1-111.5%1-29.3%1-35.0%1-4+2.9%2 2-04.5%2-17.3%2-25.9%2-33.2%2-4+1.8%3 3-01.9%3-13.1%3-22.5%3-31.3%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.3%4+-21.0%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.0% 28.6% 3.50 +12.0%

Draw 25.2% 27.8% 3.60 -5.6%

Away win 42.9% 51.3% 1.95 -16.3%

Over 2.5 60.9% 61.7% 1.62 -1.3%

Over 3.5 37.4% 39.2% 2.55 -4.6%

BTTS 61.4% 66.7% 1.50 -7.9%

Home O1.5 41.1% 40.8% 2.45 +0.7%

Away O1.5 50.2% 56.5% 1.77 -11.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 39 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 13.8%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 47%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob61.4%

A 43% / xG 1.3-1.6 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 1–2 9.3%

#3 0–1 9.0%

#4 0–0 5.6%

#5 0–2 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Elfsborg1.3

Sirius1.6

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.9% · O3.5 PROB 37.4%

Form & verdict PPG

ELFSBORG · PPG 1.71

SIRIUS · PPG 2.67

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.67) vs Home GOOD (1.71)

Win probability 1X2

Elfsborg (H) 32.0%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +12.0%

Draw 25.2%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -5.6%

Sirius (A) 42.9%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -16.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Elfsborg face Sirius in Sweden - Allsvenskan on Sunday, July 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Elfsborg a 32% chance, the draw 25% and Sirius 43%, so Sirius are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Elfsborg and 1.6 for Sirius (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Elfsborg are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 2.67 for Sirius. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +12.0%.

Elfsborg vs Sirius Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Match Preview & Prediction

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