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Hammarby vs Degerfors Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Regular Season - 13 ·Sunday, July 19, 2026, 14:30

Hammarby

PPG 2.29 · HOME

UPCOMING

Degerfors

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 63.3% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-13.3%0-21.2%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-010.9%1-17.8%1-22.8%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-012.9%2-19.2%2-23.3%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-010.2%3-17.2%3-22.6%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-010.5%4+-17.5%4+-22.7%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.3% 80.0% 1.25 -20.9%

Draw 20.1% 19.2% 5.20 +2.7%

Away win 16.6% 8.3% 12.00 +59.5%

Over 2.5 60.9% 65.4% 1.53 -6.8%

Over 3.5 38.0% 43.5% 2.30 -12.6%

BTTS 52.6% 54.1% 1.85 -2.7%

Home O1.5 62.9% 75.2% 1.33 -16.3%

Away O1.5 21.6% 20.0% 5.00 +4.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 39 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 13.8%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob52.6%

H 63% / xG 2.4-0.7 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.9%

#2 3–0 10.2%

#3 1–0 10.9%

#4 2–1 9.2%

#5 1–1 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hammarby2.4

Degerfors0.7

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.9% · O3.5 PROB 38.0%

Form & verdict PPG

HAMMARBY · PPG 2.29

DEGERFORS · PPG 1.00

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.29) vs P(Home)=63.3%

Win probability 1X2

Hammarby (H) 63.3%

ODDS 1.25 · IMPLIED 80.0% EV -20.9%

Draw 20.1%

ODDS 5.20 · IMPLIED 19.2% EV +2.7%

Degerfors (A) 16.6%

ODDS 12.00 · IMPLIED 8.3% EV +59.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hammarby face Degerfors in Sweden - Allsvenskan on Sunday, July 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hammarby a 63% chance, the draw 20% and Degerfors 17%, so Hammarby are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Hammarby and 0.7 for Degerfors (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hammarby are averaging 2.29 points per game versus 1.00 for Degerfors. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +59.5%.

Hammarby vs Degerfors Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Match Preview & Prediction

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