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Wuhan Three Towns vs Chongqing Tongliang Long Prediction— China - Super League

Regular Season - 20 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 12:00

Wuhan Three Towns

PPG 1.38 · HOME

UPCOMING

Chongqing Tongliang Long

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.8% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.2%0-19.1%0-25.1%0-31.9%0-4+0.7%1 1-011.3%1-112.7%1-27.1%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-07.8%2-18.8%2-24.9%2-31.8%2-4+0.7%3 3-03.6%3-14.1%3-22.3%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-11.9%4+-21.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.0% 45.0% 2.22 +2.1%

Draw 26.6% 30.3% 3.30 -7.3%

Away win 27.4% 33.6% 2.98 -11.0%

Over 2.5 50.0% 51.3% 1.95 -2.5%

Over 3.5 28.7% 29.4% 3.40 -1.5%

BTTS 52.8% 57.8% 1.73 -8.7%

Home O1.5 40.8% 45.5% 2.20 -10.2%

Away O1.5 36.4% 36.4% 2.75 +0.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 30%

ROI 5.0%

Bet Hit 66%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 23%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.8%

H 46% / xG 1.4-1.1 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 0–0 8.2%

#3 1–0 11.3%

#4 2–1 8.8%

#5 2–0 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Wuhan Three Towns1.4

Chongqing Tongliang Long1.1

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

WUHAN THREE TOWNS · PPG 1.38

CHONGQING TONGLIANG LONG · PPG 1.33

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.27 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Wuhan Three Towns (H) 46.0%

ODDS 2.22 · IMPLIED 45.0% EV +2.1%

Draw 26.6%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -7.3%

Chongqing Tongliang Long (A) 27.4%

ODDS 2.98 · IMPLIED 33.6% EV -11.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Wuhan Three Towns face Chongqing Tongliang Long in China - Super League on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Wuhan Three Towns a 46% chance, the draw 27% and Chongqing Tongliang Long 27%, so Wuhan Three Towns are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Wuhan Three Towns and 1.1 for Chongqing Tongliang Long (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Wuhan Three Towns are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 1.33 for Chongqing Tongliang Long. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +3.4%.

Wuhan Three Towns vs Chongqing Tongliang Long Prediction— China - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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