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SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shanghai Shenhua Prediction— China - Super League

Regular Season - 20 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 11:35

SHANGHAI SIPG

PPG 1.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Shanghai Shenhua

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-14.4%0-23.2%0-31.6%0-4+0.8%1 1-06.0%1-18.9%1-26.6%1-33.3%1-4+1.7%2 2-06.2%2-19.1%2-26.7%2-33.3%2-4+1.7%3 3-04.2%3-16.2%3-24.6%3-32.3%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-03.4%4+-15.1%4+-23.7%4+-31.8%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.6% 43.9% 2.28 +13.1%

Draw 22.4% 27.8% 3.60 -11.6%

Away win 28.1% 37.6% 2.66 -15.2%

Over 2.5 63.7% 71.4% 1.40 -10.8%

Over 3.5 42.1% 50.0% 2.00 -15.8%

BTTS 63.9% 75.2% 1.33 -15.0%

Home O1.5 58.8% 58.8% 1.70 -0.0%

Away O1.5 49.0% 54.1% 1.85 -9.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 30%

ROI 5.0%

Bet Hit 66%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 56%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob63.9%

H 50% / xG 2.0-1.5 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.9%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 2–2 6.7%

#4 1–2 6.6%

#5 3–1 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

SHANGHAI SIPG2.0

Shanghai Shenhua1.5

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 42.1%

Form & verdict PPG

SHANGHAI SIPG · PPG 1.50

SHANGHAI SHENHUA · PPG 1.50

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.56 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

SHANGHAI SIPG (H) 49.6%

ODDS 2.28 · IMPLIED 43.9% EV +13.1%

Draw 22.4%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -11.6%

Shanghai Shenhua (A) 28.1%

ODDS 2.66 · IMPLIED 37.6% EV -15.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

SHANGHAI SIPG face Shanghai Shenhua in China - Super League on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives SHANGHAI SIPG a 50% chance, the draw 22% and Shanghai Shenhua 28%, so SHANGHAI SIPG are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for SHANGHAI SIPG and 1.5 for Shanghai Shenhua (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, SHANGHAI SIPG are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.50 for Shanghai Shenhua. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +11.8%.

SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shanghai Shenhua Prediction— China - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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