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Dalian Yingbo vs Shandong T. Prediction— China - Super League

Matchday 19 ·Saturday, July 18, 2026, 11:35

Dalian Yingbo

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

WLDWD

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Shandong T.

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.1% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.7%0-14.3%0-23.4%0-31.8%0-4+1.1%1 1-05.4%1-18.7%1-26.9%1-33.7%1-4+2.1%2 2-05.5%2-18.7%2-27.0%2-33.7%2-4+2.1%3 3-03.7%3-15.9%3-24.7%3-32.5%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-14.7%4+-23.8%4+-32.0%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.7% 45.0% 2.22 -0.8%

Draw 21.5% 26.7% 3.75 -11.6%

Away win 33.8% 37.0% 2.70 -8.7%

Over 2.5 67.1% 67.6% 1.48 -0.7%

Over 3.5 44.5% 46.5% 2.15 -4.3%

BTTS 63.8% 71.4% 1.40 -10.7%

Home O1.5 56.8% 56.5% 1.77 +0.5%

Away O1.5 50.2% 51.3% 1.95 -2.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 109 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -10.7%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob63.8%

H 45% / xG 2.0-1.6 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.7%

#2 2–1 8.7%

#3 2–2 7.0%

#4 1–2 6.9%

#5 3–1✓ 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dalian Yingbo2.0

Shandong T.1.6

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.1% · O3.5 PROB 44.5%

Form & verdict PPG

DALIAN YINGBO · PPG 2.00

SHANDONG T. · PPG 1.33

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.00) > Away AVERAGE (1.33)

Win probability 1X2

Dalian Yingbo (H) 44.7%

ODDS 2.22 · IMPLIED 45.0% EV -0.8%

Draw 21.5%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -11.6%

Shandong T. (A) 33.8%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -8.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dalian Yingbo face Shandong T. in China - Super League on Saturday, July 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dalian Yingbo a 45% chance, the draw 22% and Shandong T. 34%, so Dalian Yingbo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Dalian Yingbo and 1.6 for Shandong T. (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dalian Yingbo are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.33 for Shandong T.. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +10.1%. This match finished 3-1.

Dalian Yingbo vs Shandong T. Prediction— China - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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