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Chongqing T. vs Zhejiang Prediction— China - Super League

Saturday, July 18, 2026

Chongqing T.

PPG 1.78 · HOME

UPCOMING

Zhejiang

PPG 1.11 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.78) > Away AVERAGE (1.11)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.1%0-16.7%0-23.2%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-012.0%1-111.4%1-25.4%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.2%2-19.7%2-24.6%2-31.5%2-4+0.4%3 3-05.8%3-15.5%3-22.6%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.6%4+-13.4%4+-21.6%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.3% — — —

Draw 24.5% — — —

Away win 23.2% — — —

Over 2.5 54.1% — — —

Over 3.5 33.5% — — —

BTTS 55.5% — — —

Home O1.5 53.0% — — —

Away O1.5 29.5% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 69%

Score Hit 29%

ROI -12.4%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 37%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob55.5%

H 52% / xG 1.7-0.9 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 1–0 12.0%

#3 2–0 10.2%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 0–0 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chongqing T.1.7

Zhejiang0.9

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.1% · O3.5 PROB 33.5%

Form & verdict PPG

CHONGQING T. · PPG 1.78

ZHEJIANG · PPG 1.11

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.78) > Away AVERAGE (1.11)

Win probability 1X2

Chongqing T. (H) 52.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Zhejiang (A) 23.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Chongqing T. face Zhejiang in China - Super League on Saturday, July 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chongqing T. a 52% chance, the draw 25% and Zhejiang 23%, so Chongqing T. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Chongqing T. and 0.9 for Zhejiang (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chongqing T. are averaging 1.78 points per game versus 1.11 for Zhejiang.

Chongqing T. vs Zhejiang Prediction— China - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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